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研究生: 彭琪淳
Peng, Chi-Chun
論文名稱: 股吧投資專家對分析師盈餘預測影響之探究
Exploring the Impacts of Gub's Investment Experts on Analysts' Earnings Forecast
指導教授: 陳慧玲
Chen, Huei-Ling
口試委員: 林孝倫
Lin, Siao-Lun
林瑞青
Lin, Ray-Ching
口試日期: 2021/06/28
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 64
中文關鍵詞: 股吧投資專家分析師盈餘預測錯誤盈餘預測偏頗
英文關鍵詞: Gub, investment experts, analysts, earnings forecasts errors, earnings forecasts biases
研究方法: 實證分析
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202101086
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 財務分析師可能因所屬券商業務不同而產生利益衝突,發布具有偏頗的盈餘預測。然而,分析師可能因為競爭,為維護聲譽而提升盈餘預測準確性或是減少盈餘偏頗。中國網路投資平台崛起,股吧投資專家在股吧發表看法受到許多關注,對於追蹤同一公司的分析師而言,形成一股外部競爭壓力。本研究目的係檢視股吧投資專家對某公司發表意見與否對追蹤該公司分析師的盈餘預測錯誤及偏頗影響。

    實證結果顯示,當有影響力股吧專家於本季發表看法時,前季及下一季均追蹤該公司分析師一致性盈餘預測錯誤會減少;然而,對於前季及下一季均追蹤該公司分析師一致性盈餘預測偏頗並無顯著影響。額外分析部分,當有影響力股吧專家發表意見時,在前季及本季均追蹤該公司分析師一致性盈餘預測錯誤以及分析師一致性盈餘預測偏頗會增加。

    Financial analysts may have conflicts of interest due to different businesses of their brokerage firms. They may issue biased earnings forecasts. However, analysts may improve the accuracy of earnings forecasts or reduce earnings forecast bias in order to maintain reputation due to competition. With the rapid growth of China's online investment platforms, investment experts' opinions on Gub have attracted a lot of attention. Analysts may face external competitive pressure when investment experts provide opinions related to the same company on Gub. The purpose of this research is to examine whether financial analysts' forecast error and forecast bias will change when the Gub's investment experts express opinions on the company which analysts follow.

    The empirical results show that when influential Gub's experts express their opinions in the current quarter, the magnitude of analyst consensus earnings forecasts errors is significantly lower for those analysts following the company in the previous and next quarters. However, the magnitude of analyst consensus earnings forecasts biases is not significantly lower for those analysts following the company in the previous and next quarters. In the additional analyses, when influential Gub's experts express their opinions, the magnitude of analyst consensus earnings forecasts errors and biases significantly increases for those analysts following the company in the previous and current quarters.

    第一章、緒論 1 第一節、研究動機 1 第二節、研究目的及架構 4 第三節、研究論文貢獻 6 第二章、相關文獻回顧 7 第一節、分析師盈餘預測參考文獻 7 第二節、網路投資平台相關文獻 9 第三節、中國分析師及股吧相關文獻 11 第三章、研究方法 17 第一節、研究假說 17 第二節、變數定義及研究樣本 19 第三節、單變量統計與多變量統計 22 第四章、實證結果 24 第一節、描述性統計 24 第二節、單變量與多變量統計分析結果 39 第三節、敏感性分析 46 第五章、結論與建議 58 第一節、結論 58 第二節、建議及研究限制 60 參考文獻 61 一、中文部分 61 二、英文部分 62

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