簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

回結果列表
研究生： 姜欣妤
Chiang, Hsin-Yu
論文名稱： 不同颱風生成指數對西北太平洋颱風生成數的突變之評估
Estimate Abrupt Change of Typhoon Numbers Over the Western North Pacific by Different Genesis Potential Index
指導教授： 鄒治華
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年： 2016
畢業學年度： 104
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 62
中文關鍵詞： 西北太平洋 、颱風潛在生成指數 、CMIP5模式
DOI URL： https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202205154
論文種類： 學術論文
相關次數： 點閱：117  下載：23 
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報

    • 西北太平洋颱風生成數於1990年代有突變的現象，1994年以後的颱風生成數目大幅減少。大尺度環境參數是影響颱風生成的因素。因此本研究採用兩種包含不同環境因子的颱風生成指數(GPI與χGPI)，以推估影響西北太平洋颱風活動突變特徵的主要環境因素。其中，χGPI中的參數χ代表自由對流層的飽和差。 本研究並將GPI與χGPI的渦度項作了修正，發展新的颱風生成指數(modified-GPI與modified-χGPI)，以期生成指數能反應實際颱風活動特徵。
    分析結果顯示，GPI與χGPI皆未能掌握後期颱風生成數目大幅減少的特徵，而modified-GPI與modified-χGPI皆掌握1994年後颱風生成數目減少之趨勢。造成後期GPI(χGPI)總值增加與實際颱風生成數目相反的因素，主要來自600百帕相對濕度(χ)與垂直風切的貢獻。而造成後期modified-GPI與modified-χGPI總值減少，與實際颱風生成數目的變化一致，主要貢獻皆為相對渦度，即後期颱風生成數目大幅減少的趨勢，主要是受到季風槽減弱的影響，而非導致GPI(χGPI)指數增加的相對濕度(χ)效應。
    本研究評估了上述四個指數的CMIP5模式系集結果，採用全球大氣環流模式(AGCM)中六個模式historical run的部分。評估模式系集之生成指數的變化特徵，發現GPI、χGPI與modified-GPI皆無法反應兩階段颱風生成數目的變化，僅modified-χGPI則掌握了1990年代以後颱風生成數目減少的趨勢。此外，模式系集之modified-χGPI也掌握了兩階段颱風生成之空間分佈。因此，modified-χGPI的表現最佳，且可反應實際颱風生成數目之氣候特徵與1990年代的突變現象。

    目 錄 摘要. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 致謝. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II 目錄. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . III 圖表目錄. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . IV 第一章 前言. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 第二章 資料模式、與研究方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.1 資料介紹. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.2 颱風生成指數介紹. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 第三章 颱風生成數與生成指數之氣候分佈. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3.1 大尺度環境場之氣候分佈. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 3.2 颱風生成指數之氣候分佈. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 第四章 颱風生成數與生成指數之突變. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4.1 颱風生成指數之突變. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4.2 大尺度環境場之突變. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 第五章 CMIP5模式模擬. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 5.1 大尺度環境場之模式評估. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 5.2 颱風生成指數之模式評估. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 第六章 結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 附圖表. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38

    參考文獻
    Bengtsson, L., H. Böttger, and M. Kanamitsu, 1982: Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Tellus, 34, 440–457.

    Bister, M.,and Emanuel,K.,1997:The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modelling study. Mon Weather Rev,125,1397-1413.

    ____,M., and Emanuel,K.,1998:Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atm. Phys. 52, 233–240.

    Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, and S. E. Zebiak, 2005: A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models.Tellus, 57A, 589–604.

    ____, S. J., Emanuel, K. A., and Sobel, A. H., 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. Journal of Climate, 20(19), 4819-4834.

    ____, S. J., M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, G. A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, and I. M. Held, 2012: Analysis of tropical cyclone genesis indices for climate change using the HIRAM model. Preprints, 30th Conf. on Hurricanes andTropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4B.1.

    ____, S. J., 2013: Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models. J Clim., 26, 9880–9902.

    Chan, 2008: Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific. Proc. Roy. Soc. London, 464A, 249–272.

    Dee, D. P., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Engelen, R., Simmons, A. J., and Thépaut, J. N., 2014: Toward a consistent reanalysis of the climate system.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95(8), 1235-1248.

    Emanuel, K.A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press,580pp.

    _____, K.A.,1995: The behavior of a simple hurricane model using a convective scheme based on subcloud-layer entropy equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci.,52:3959–3968.

    ____, K. A., 1995: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci.,52, 3969–3976.
    ____, K. A. and Nolan, D. S., 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Proceedings of 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, Florida, American Met. Soc, 240–241.

    ____, K. A.,2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature,436, 686–688.

    ____, K. A., Sundararajan, R., Williams, J.,2008: Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc,89:347–367.

    ____, K. A., 2010: Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES reanalysis, 1908-1958.J Adv Model Earth Sys, 2, 1–12.

    ____, K. A., 2013: Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(30), 12219-12224.

    Gates, W. L., 1992: AMIP: The atmospheric model intercomparison project.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 73(12), 1962-1970.

    Gray, W. M., 1968: Global Viewof The Originof Tropical Disturbancesand Storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669–700.

    ____,W.M., 1979: Hurricanes: their formation structure and likely role in tropical circulation. Meteorology Over the Tropical Oceans (ed. D. B. Shaw), Royal Meteorological Society, 155–218.

    Ho, C.-H., J.-J. Baik, J.-H. Kim, D.-Y. Gong, and C.-H. Sui, 2004: Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J. Climate, 17, 1767–1776.

    Hsu, P.-C., Chu, P.-S., Murakami, H.,and Zhao, X., 2014: An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 27, 4296–4312 .

    Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., ... and Zhu, Y., 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American meteorological Society, 77(3), 437-471.

    Knapp, K.R., Kruk, M.C., Levinson, D.H., Diamond, H.J., Neumann, C.J., 2010:International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull Am Meteor Soc,91,363–376.
    Knutson, T.R., McBride, J.L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J.P., Srivastava, A.K., Sugi, M., 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci,3,157–163.

    ____, T.R., Sirutis, J.J., Vecchi, G.A., Garner, S.T., Zhao, M, Kim, H-S, Bender, M.A., Tuleya, R.E., Held, I.M., Villarini, G.,2013: Dynamical downscaling projections of 21st century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3and CMIP5 model-based scenario. J Clim,26.

    Lighthill, J., G. Holland, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Creig, J. Evans, Y. Kurikara, and C. Guard., 1994: Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 2147-2157.

    Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 2013: Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J. Climate, 26, 2614– 2630.

    Manabe, S., J. L. Holloway, and H. M. Stone, 1970: Tropical circulation in a time-integration of a global model atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 27,580–613.

    McBride, J.L., Zehr, R., 1981: Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: comparison of non-developing versus developing systems. J Atmos Sci,38,1132–1151.

    Matsuura, T., M. Yumoto, and S. Iizuka, 2003: A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 21, 105–117.

    Murakami, H., and B. Wang, 2010: Future Change of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Projection by a 20-km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model. J. Climate, 23, 2699–2721.

    Palmen, E.,1956: A review of knowledge on the formation and development of tropical cyclones. Proceedings of Tropical Cyclone symposium, Brisbane, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, P.O. Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia,213–232.

    Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., ... and Kaplan, A. 2003:Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature sincethelatenineteenth century.Journalof Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012),108(D14).

    Royer, J.-F., Chauvin, F., Timbal, B., Araspin, P. and Grimal, D., 1998: A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones. Climatic Change 38, 307–343.

    Sampson, C. R., J. S. Goerss, and H. C. Weber, 2006: Operational performance of a new barotropic model (WBAR) in the western North Pacific basin. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 656–662.

    Trenberth, K. E., 2005:Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming, Science, 308,1753–1754.

    Tu, J.-Y., C. Chou, P. Huang, and R. Huang, 2011: An abrupt increase of intense typhoons over the western North Pacific in early summer. Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034013.

    Vitart, F., J. L. Anderson, and W. F. Stern, 1997: Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J. Climate, 10, 745–760.

    Villarini ,G., Vecchi, G.A.,2012: Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models. Nature Clim. Change, 2,604–607.

    Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844–1846.

    Wu, L., B. Wang, and S. Geng, 2005: Growing typhoon influence on East Asia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18703.

    Walsh, K., Lavender, S., Scoccimarro, E., and Murakami, H., 2013: Resolution dependence of tropical cyclone formation in CMIP3 and finer resolution models.Climate dynamics, 40(3-4), 585-599.

    Yeh, S.-W., S.-K. Kang, B. P. Kirtman, J.-H. Kim, M.-H. Kwon, and C.-H. Kim, 2010: Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 106, 179–189.

    Yokoi, S., and Y. N. Takayabu, 2013: Attribution of decadal variability in tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific: A new approach emphasizing the genesis place of cyclones. J. Climate, 26, 973–987.

    下載圖示
    QR CODE