近年來，由於第五代行動通訊技術之快速發展，促成車聯網與聯網裝置、雲端系統、基地台之整合，並進而提昇次世代車輛的便利性與安全性。雖然車聯網世代來臨，而且對未來交通影響甚鉅，但少有學者預測未來發展情境，定義技術路徑圖。為跨越研究缺口，本研究將使用混合多屬性決策分析法 (multiple attribute decision making，MADM) 與情境分析，發展我國車聯網產業未來十年面臨之情境，並且定義廠商之技術路徑圖。
首先，本研究導入整合環境分析模型 (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal，PESTEL)，以各構面為驅動力量，由專家以修正式德菲法確認各構面之適合性。其次，導入決策實驗室分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL)與基於決策實驗室分析法之分析網路流程 (DEMATEL based Analytic Network Process，DANP)，定義 PESTEL 構面與準則間的影響關係與權重。之後以多準則折衷評估方法 (Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje，VIKOR) 選擇最重要的三個情境軸，並以最重要情境軸組成八種情境，並且以 多準則折衷評估方法選擇最佳的三種情境，最後以模糊能力集合擴展法建構發展車聯網能力之最小生成樹後，由專家定義各能力之發展時程，發展適用於三種情境之技術路徑圖。
本研究以台灣某車聯網設備廠商之個案，實證分析架構之可行性。依據實證研究結果，三情境分別為政策支持、技術進步、經濟好和政策支持、技術進步低於預期、經濟好及政策支持、技術進步、經濟低於預期，其能力集合涵蓋之車聯網軟體與硬體的技術分別為電池模組、防盜系統、通訊模組、先進駕駛輔助系統、車用螢幕、自動駕駛，以能力集合擴展法建構之技術路徑圖，可為網通業者在發展車聯網軟硬體時提供參考依據。

In recent years, the rapid development of fifth-generation mobile communication technology has facilitated the integration of connected internet of vehicle with networked devices, cloud systems, and base stations, thereby enhancing the convenience and safety of next generation vehicles. Although the era of connected vehicles has arrived, and its impact on future transportation is significant, few scholars have predicted future development scenarios or defined technology roadmaps. To bridge this research gap, this study will utilize a hybrid approach of multiple attribute decision making (MADM) and scenario analysis to develop scenarios for the next decade in Taiwan's connected vehicle industry and define technological roadmaps.
Firstly, this study introduces an integrated environmental analysis model, namely the Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal (PESTEL) framework, with each dimension serving as a driving force. Experts employ the modified Delphi method to confirm the suitability of each dimension. Secondly, the study employs the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method along with the DEMATEL based Analytic Network Process (DANP) to define the influential relationships and weights between the PESTEL dimensions and criteria. Subsequently, the study utilizes the Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method to select the three most important scenario axes. These axes compose eight distinct scenarios, from which the top three are chosen using the VIKOR method. Finally, employing the fuzzy competence set expansion method, the study constructs a minimum spanning tree for developing connected vehicle capabilities. Experts define the development schedule for each capability, culminating in the creation of a technology roadmap applicable to the three selected scenarios.
This study demonstrates the feasibility of the analytical framework through a case study of a connected vehicle equipment manufacturer in Taiwan. Based on the empirical research results, the three scenarios are policy support, favorable technology progress, a robust economy and policy support, technology progress below expectations, a strong economy and policy support, favorable technology progress, an economy below expectations. The expansion of the competence set involves the technical aspects of connected vehicle software and hardware, encompassing battery modules, anti-theft systems, communication modules, advanced driver assistance systems, automotive displays, and autopilot. By utilizing the fuzzy competence set expansion method, a technology roadmap is constructed. This roadmap can serve as a reference for network communication industry players when developing connected vehicle software and hardware.

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