地球暖化普遍引起了全球海平面的上升，其中西北太平洋是已知上升幅度快速的海域，然而此區域海表面高度的趨勢變化具有明顯的區域異質性，造成此現象的物理機制仍不明瞭。本研究藉由總經驗模態分解法分析了西北太平洋海域在過去20年期間衛星海高資料的長週期變化，結果顯示除了已知的西北太平洋大部分海域在過去20年期間呈現上升趨勢之外，進一步發現在2003年之後，西北太平洋暖池海域的海表面高度上升速率有增強的趨勢，而呂宋海峽東側有一條東西向帶狀的海域，其海表面高度呈現快速下降的趨勢。
呂宋海峽東側海域在2003年以後，海表面高度下降的原因主要來自水體冷卻引起的比容高度下降，研究中分別探討了幾種會造成此區水體冷卻的可能因素：表層熱通量變化、表面風造成的湧升或下沉、海洋中尺度渦漩的擾動以及風生大洋環流變異。研究結果支持Sverdrup風生環流理論為主要的影響因子，顯示北太平洋風場第一模態(EOF1) 與亞熱帶環流的強度變化有關，第二模態(EOF2) 則與亞熱帶環流的北側南北位移有關，第三模態(EOF3) 則與下降期出現的“小型環流”有重要關聯。這些氣候因子共同影響了亞熱帶環流的強度與位置變化，使得2003年以後呂宋海峽東側海域逐漸變成亞熱帶環流的南邊界，於是海表面高度下降且相對較低溫。

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