研究生: |
黃寶緯 Huang, Pao-Wei |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
印度降雨變異之研究 Climate variability responsible for the rainfall fluctuation in Indian |
指導教授: |
吳朝榮
Wu, Chau-Ron |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2019 |
畢業學年度: | 107 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 58 |
中文關鍵詞: | 印度降雨 、年代際變化 、南半球環狀模式 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DES.004.2019.B07 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:186 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
過去許多研究指出,印度地區降雨現象主要受到亞洲夏季季風所影響,鮮少討論低頻時間尺度上的變化,如年代際變化(decadal variations)。然而印度地區在年代際上的降水變化有機會造成重大災情,因此在降水變異的研究上不能僅局限於季節(seasonal)或年際(inter-annual)上的變化,了解印度地區降水在年代際變化有助於我們提早應變可能發生的災害。
本文主要研究1979年至2015年觀測資料GPCP在印度地區的降水變化,發現有一明顯年代際尺度的降水變異,並進一步利用多元線性迴歸分析發現,這與南半球氣候主要模態之一的南半球環狀模式(Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode, SAM)的變化有著密切的關係。為了進一步了解SAM影響印度地區降水的過程,我們利用簡單線性迴歸分析探討南半球氣候變異如何改變印度的降雨。研究結果顯示,當SAM為正相位時,南半球海表溫度在副熱帶地區為正異常,在中緯度為負異常,而這樣的海表溫變化會造成大氣經向環流的減弱,導致低雲覆蓋率在印度洋上減少,在亞洲大陸東、南側增加,進而改變地表淨熱通量,使得海陸溫差變大,造成向北跨赤道風增強,因此為印度地區帶來豐沛的雨量。
Abram, N. J., Gagan, M. K., Cole, J. E., Hantoro, W. S., & Mudelsee, M. (2008). Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Nature Geoscience, 1(12), 849-853.
Azad, S., & Rajeevan, M. (2016). Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming. Scientific Reports, 6, 20145.
Douglas, I. (2009). Climate change, flooding and food security in south Asia. Food Security, 1(2), 127-136.
Deka, R. L., Mahanta, C., Pathak, H., Nath, K. K., & Das, S. (2013). Trends and fluctuations of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra and Barak basins of Assam, India. Theoretical and applied climatology, 114(1), 61-71.
Findlater, J. (1969). A major low‐level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 95(404), 362-380.
Goswami, B. N. (1998). Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks. Journal of Climate, 11(4), 501-522.
Ihara, C., Kushnir, Y., Cane, M. A., & Victor, H. (2007). Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its link with ENSO and Indian Ocean climate indices. International Journal of Climatology, 27(2), 179-187.
Knight, J. R., Folland, C. K., & Scaife, A. A. (2006). Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17706.
Krishnamurthy, L., & Krishnamurthy, V. (2014). Influence of PDO on South Asian summer monsoon and monsoon–ENSO relation. Climate dynamics, 42(9), 2397-2410.
Krishnamurti, T. N., & Bhalme, H. N. (1976). Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I. Observational aspects. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 33(10), 1937-1954.
Krishnaswamy, J., Vaidyanathan, S., Rajagopalan, B., Bonell, M., Sankaran, M., Bhalla, R. S., & Badiger, S. (2015). Non-stationary and non-linear influence of ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole on the variability of Indian monsoon rainfall and extreme rain events. Climate Dynamics, 45(1), 175-184.
Kucharski, F., Molteni, F., & Yoo, J. H. (2006). SST forcing of decadal Indian monsoon rainfall variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L03709.
Kumar, M. R., Shenoi, S. S. C., & Schluessel, P. (1999). On the Role of the Cross Equatorial Flow on Summer MonsoonRainfall over India using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 70(3), 201-213.
Li, G., Xie, S. P., He, C., & Chen, Z. (2017). Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nature Climate Change, 7, 708-712.
Liang, X., Liu, Y., & Wu, G. (2005). The role of land‐sea distribution in the formation of the Asian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(3), L03708.
Marshall, G. J. (2003). Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. Journal of Climate, 16(24), 4134-4143.
Meneghini, B., Simmonds, I., & Smith, I. N. (2007). Association between Australian rainfall and the southern annular mode. International Journal of Climatology, 27(1), 109-121.
Nair, P. J., Chakraborty, A., Varikoden, H., Francis, P. A., & Kuttippurath, J. (2018). The local and global climate forcings induced inhomogeneity of Indian rainfall. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 6026.
Nan, S., Li, J., Yuan, X., & Zhao, P. (2009). Boreal spring Southern Hemisphere annular mode, Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, and East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114, D02103.
Rajeevan, M., & McPhaden, M. J. (2004). Tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content variations and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L18203.
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., & Yamagata, T. (1999). A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751), 360.
Saji, N. H., & Yamagata, T. (2003). Structure of SST and surface wind variability during Indian Ocean dipole mode events: COADS observations. Journal of Climate, 16(16), 2735-2751.
Shi, W., Xiao, Z., & Xue, J. (2016). Teleconnected influence of the boreal winter Antarctic Oscillation on the Somali Jet: Bridging role of sea surface temperature in southern high and middle latitudes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33(1), 47-57.
Sun, J. Q. (2010). Possible impact of the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation on the North American summer monsoon. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 3(4), 232-236.
Turner, A. G., & Annamalai, H. (2012). Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nature Climate Change, 2, 587-595.
Ummenhofer, C. C., Gupta, A. S., Li, Y., Taschetto, A. S., & England, M. H. (2011). Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino–Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability. Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), 034006.
Wu, R., & Kirtman, B. P. (2005). Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Climate Dynamics, 25(2), 155-170.
Xu, Z., Qian, Y., & Fu, C. (2010). The role of land-sea distribution and orography in the asian monsoon. Part I: Land-sea distribution. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(2), 403-420.
Yang, J., Liu, Q., Xie, S. P., Liu, Z., & Wu, L. (2007). Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02708.
Zhang, R., & Delworth, T. L. (2006). Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17712.
Zheng, F., & Li, J. P. (2012). Impact of preceding boreal winter southern hemisphere annular mode on spring precipitation over south China and related mechanism. Diqiu Wuli Xuebao, 55(11), 3542-3557.