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研究生: 莊秉恩
Zhuang, Bing-En
論文名稱: 股吧投資專家對不同能力分析師盈餘預測偏誤影響之探究
Exploring the Impacts of Gub's Investment Experts on Forecasts Biases and Errors of Analysts with Different Ability
指導教授: 陳慧玲
Chen, Huei-Ling
口試委員: 林孝倫
Lin, Siao-Lun
林瑞青
Lin, Ray-Ching
陳慧玲
Chen, Huei-Ling
口試日期: 2022/06/20
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 股吧投資專家分析師能力盈餘預測偏頗改變盈餘預測錯誤改變
英文關鍵詞: Gub's investment experts, analyst ability, change in earnings forecast bias, change in earnings forecast error
研究方法: 實證分析
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202200619
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 近年來,隨著網路的普及,中國網路投資平台興起,股吧投資專家在論壇發表的投資意見備受投資人關注,對分析師而言形成一股競爭壓力。若股吧投資專家與分析師追蹤同一間公司,分析師可能有誘因為維護聲譽而提升盈餘預測準確度。本研究目的係檢視股吧投資專家首次加入有否影響到不同能力分析師之盈餘預測偏頗及盈餘預測錯誤。
    本研究將分析師盈餘預測偏頗區分樂觀偏頗或悲觀偏頗,實證結果顯示,在具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入,相較於與其追蹤同一家公司之能力低的分析師,能力高分析師樂觀偏頗的幅度及悲觀偏頗的幅度均會顯著下降較多。實證結果亦顯示,當具有影響力股吧投資專家首次加入,追蹤同一家公司之能力佳分析師之盈餘預測錯誤會顯著減少。

    In recent years, with the popularity of the Internet and the rise of online investment platforms in China, the investment opinions expressed by investment experts in Gub's forum have attracted attention from investors. Gub's statements create competitive pressure for analysts. If the investment experts on Gub's platform and analysts track the same company, the analysts may have incentives to improve the accuracy of their earnings forecasts for reputation. This study aims to examine whether forecast biases and forecast errors of analysts with different abilities will change after Gub's investment experts express their opinions on the same firm for the first time.
    This study differentiates analysts' earnings forecast bias into optimistic or pessimistic bias. Empirical results show that compared to analysts with low ability, both the magnitude of optimistic bias and pessimistic bias for analysts with high ability decreases significantly when influential investment experts express their opinion for the first time. Empirical results also show that earnings forecast errors of analysts with higher ability are significantly reduced when influential investment experts express their views for the first time at the same firm that analysts follow.

    第一章、緒論 1 第一節、研究動機 1 第二節、研究目的及架構 3 第三節、研究論文貢獻 5 第二章、文獻回顧 6 第一節、分析師盈餘預測文獻 6 第二節、網路投資平台相關文獻 11 第三節、中國分析師介紹及相關文獻 14 第四節、中國股吧介紹及相關文獻 16 第三章、研究方法 18 第一節、研究假說 18 第二節、變數定義及研究樣本 20 第三節、單變量統計與多變量統計 23 第四章、實證結果 25 第一節、描述性統計 25 第二節、單變量與多變量統計分析結果 32 第三節、敏感性分析 36 第五章、結論與建議 43 第一節、結論 43 第二節、研究建議 45 參考文獻 47 一、中文部分 47 二、英文部分 48

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