簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 姜博修
Chiang, Po-Hsiu
論文名稱: 投資人情緒是否影響股票的填息概況?
Does investor sentiment influence on recovery from ex-dividends of stocks?
指導教授: 周德瑋
Chou, De-Wai
口試委員: 王衍智
Wang, Yen-Chih
林霖
Lin, Lin
陳達新
Chen, Ta-Hsin
周德瑋
Chou, De-Wai
口試日期: 2023/06/30
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 64
中文關鍵詞: 投資人情緒填息天數價值股成長股
英文關鍵詞: Investor sentiment, Days of recovery from ex-dividends, Value stocks, Growth stocks
研究方法: 次級資料分析
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202301102
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:116下載:10
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 投資股票的獲利不外乎從資本利得中買低賣高從中賺取價差亦或是賺取穩定的股息收入,想要真正賺取到股息收入的前提是股票必須要有完成填息的動作,否則會產生「賺了股息,賠了價差」的情況發生,因此了解到公司究竟因為什麼因素較容易完成填息對想要長期擁有穩定收入的的存股族來說就顯得格外重要。股票價格不僅受到公司收益以及股利等理性經濟因素所驅動,還會受到投資人情緒、動量和羊群效應等社會和心理因素所驅動。而本篇作者納入投資人情緒的角度探討其對個股填息天數是否有什麼影響。
    本論文將投資人情緒分類為整體市場、外資、投信、自營商以及散戶,分別探討各自情緒對填息天數會造成的影響。實證結果顯示,投資人情緒會顯著影響個股的填息天數。而不論是整體市場、外資、投信、自營商或散戶的間接情緒指標皆與填息天數呈現顯著的負相關,也就是當個類別投資人對個股的未來走向持樂觀的態度時,會積極進入股票市場交易該個股且對該個股淨買入,因此縮短個股填息的天數,反之亦然。此外作者還將研究樣本分類為價值型投資組合及成長型投資組合,發現到成長型投資組合的填息天數顯著短於價值型投資組合。而投資人情緒是影響價值型投資組合填息天數的重要影響因素之一。反之,投資人情緒對成長股的填息天數無顯著影響,而是個股的現金股利殖利率對其有顯著的影響。

    The profitability of investing in stocks primarily comes from buying low and selling high to generate capital gains, or earning stable dividend income. To truly earn dividend income, it is crucial for stocks to complete the recovery from ex-dividends. Otherwise, there may be a situation where one gains dividends but loses out on the price difference, leading to an undesirable outcome. Therefore, understanding the factors that contribute to the completion of recovery from ex-dividends by companies is particularly important for individuals seeking long-term, stable income from holding stocks. Stock prices are not only driven by rational economic factors such as company earnings and dividends but also by social and psychological factors such as investor sentiment, momentum, and herding behavior.
    This article explores the impact of investor sentiment on the number of days until recovery from ex-dividends for individual stocks. The author categorizes investor sentiment into overall market sentiment, foreign investors, institutional investors, proprietary traders, and retail investors, investigating the respective effects of their sentiment on the days of recovery from ex-dividends. The empirical results demonstrate that investor sentiment significantly affects the days of recovery from ex-dividends for individual stocks. Regardless of whether it is overall market sentiment, foreign investors, institutional investors, proprietary traders, or retail investors, all indirect sentiment indicators show a significant negative correlation with the days of recovery from ex-dividends. This means that when investors in a particular category hold an optimistic outlook on the future performance of a stock, they actively engage in trading that stock and exhibit a net buying position, thereby shortening the days of recovery from ex-dividends. The reverse is also true.
    Additionally, the author classifies the research sample into value-oriented portfolios and growth-oriented portfolios and discovers that the days of recovery from ex-dividends for growth-oriented portfolios are significantly shorter than those for value-oriented portfolios. Investor sentiment is one of the important influencing factors on the days of recovery from ex-dividends for value-oriented portfolios. Conversely, investor sentiment does not have a significant impact on the number of days until dividend payment for growth stocks; instead, the cash dividend yield of individual stocks has a significant effect.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 4 第二章 文獻回顧與假說建立 6 第一節 國內外除權息概況 6 第二節 投資人情緒 10 第三節 價值股和成長股的投資績效 15 第三章 研究方法 20 第一節 資料來源與研究對象 20 第二節 變數定義與衡量 20 第三節 投資組合分類方式 29 第四節 模型設計 30 第四章 研究結果與分析 32 第一節 填息天數與投資人情緒之迴歸分析結果 32 第二節 成長型與價值型組合之填息天數差異分析 41 第三節 成長型與價值型組合之投資人情緒與填息天數迴歸分析 48 第五章 研究結論與建議 59 第一節 研究結論 59 第二節 研究建議與限制 60 參考文獻 61

    王彥鈞(2013)。投資除權息後股票之報酬研究-以台灣市場為例。國立成功大學經營管理碩士學位學程學位論文。
    王錦瑩、林晏竹(2012)。散戶情緒與股票報酬-台灣股市實證研究。中華科技大
    學學報,(50),147-167。
    李存修(1994)。股票股利除權交易日之稅後超額報酬與比價心理假說之實證。臺大管理論叢,5(1),41-60。
    李永隆、杜玉振、王瑋瑄(2017)。Google 搜尋量指數對臺灣股票報酬與成交量之影響。管理與系統,24(4),565-590。
    李明憲(2021)。投資人情緒對填權息天數之影響-以台灣上市公司為例。國立臺北大學金融與合作經營研究所碩士論文。
    李律昕(2022)。新聞情緒及關注程度對台灣證券市場影響之探討。國立台灣師範大學管理研究所碩士論文。
    林炯垚、陳怡文(1990)。台灣地區上市股票填息現象之研究─租稅效應與顧客效應之實證。管理科學報第七卷第一期,49–68。
    吳璟昇(1997)。價值型與成長型股票投資績效之研究。國立政治大學財務管理研究所未出版之碩士論文。
    姚怡欣(2008)。台灣 50 成分股除權息日異常報酬分析。國立中山大學經濟學研究所在職專班碩士論文。
    張珮瑤(2001)。以時間因素探討台灣股市之除權行情。國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    陳巧玲(2004)。價值型投資風格於台灣股票市場之研究。國立政治大學財務管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
    劉秉龍(2002)。成長型與價值型投資策略之實證分析-以台灣股票市場為例。私立靜宜大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
    蔡佩蓉、王元章、張眾卓(2009)。投資人情緒,公司特徵與台灣股票報酬之研究。經濟研究,45(2),273-322。
    薛仲男(2000)。成長型與價值型股票選時策略之研究。國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
    蘇瓜雅(2000)。台灣股票市場電子產業除權行情實證研究-由時間因素探討。國立中央大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor Sentiment and The Cross‐section of Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
    Baker, M., & Stein, J. C. (2004). Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator. Journal of Financial Markets, 7(3), 271-299.
    Banz, R. W. (1981). The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3-18.
    Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2008). All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors. Review of Financial Studies, 21(2), 785-818.
    Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A Model of Investor Sentiment.Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307-343.
    Bauman, W. S., & Miller, R. E. (1997). Investor Expectations and the Performance of Value Stocks versus Growth Stocks. Journal of Portfolio Management, 23(3), 57.
    Bhardwaj, R. K., & Brooks, L. D. (1999). Further Evidence on Dividend Yields and the Ex‐dividend Day Stock Price Effect. Journal of Financial Research, 22(4), 503-514.
    Black, F. (1986). Noise. Journal of Finance, 41(3), 528-543.
    Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor Sentiment and the Near-term Stock Market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
    Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2005). Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation. Journal of Business, 78(2), 405-440.
    Campbell, J. Y. (2006). Household Finance. Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1553-1604.
    Campbell, J. A., & Beranek, W. (1955). Stock Price Behavior on Ex-dividend Dates. Journal of Finance, 10(4), 425-429.
    Chow, K. V., & Hulburt, H. M. (2000). Value, Size, and Portfolio Efficiency. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 78-89.
    Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2011). In Search of Attention. Journal of Finance , 66(5), 1461-1499.
    De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stock Market Overreact?. Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805.
    De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & Waldmann, R. J. (1990). Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 703-738.
    Elton, E. J., & Gruber, M. J. (1970). Homogeneous Groups and the Testing of Economic Hypotheses. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 4(5), 581-602.
    Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1998). Value versus Growth: The International Evidence. Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1975-1999.
    Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross‐section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
    Fisher, K. L., & Statman, M. (2000). Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns. Financial Analysts Journal, 56(2), 16-23.
    Hirshleifer, D., & Shumway, T. (2003). Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather. Journal of Finance, 58(3), 1009-1032.
    Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
    Kalay, A. (1982). The Ex‐dividend Day Behavior of Stock Prices: A Re‐examination of the Clientele Effect. Journal of Finance, 37(4), 1059-1070.
    Kalay, A. (1984). The Ex-dividend Day Behavior of Stock Prices; A Re-examination of the Clientele effect: A Reply. Journal of Finance, 39(2), 557-561.
    Kamstra, M. J., Kramer, L. A., & Levi, M. D. (2003). Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 324-343.
    Karpoff, J. M., & Walkling, R. A. (1988). Short-term Trading Around Ex-dividend Days: Additional Evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 21(2), 291-298.
    Kumar, A., & Lee, C. M. (2006). Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements. Journal of Finance, 61(5), 2451-2486.
    Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
    Lakonishok, J., & Vermaelen, T. (1986). Tax-induced Trading around Ex-dividend Days. Journal of Financial Economics, 16(3), 287-319.
    Lasfer, M. A. (1995). Ex‐day Behavior: Tax or Short‐term Trading Effects. Journal of Finance, 50(3), 875-897.
    Lee, C. M., Shleifer, A., & Thaler, R. H. (1991). Investor Sentiment and the Closed‐end Fund Puzzle. Journal of Finance, 46(1), 75-109.
    Lemmon, M., & Portniaguina, E. (2006). Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence. Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), 1499-1529.
    Neal, R., & Wheatley, S. M. (1998). Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 33(4), 523-547.
    Ritter, J. R., & Chopra, N. (1989). Portfolio Rebalancing and the Turn‐of‐the‐year Effect. Journal of Finance, 44(1), 149-166.
    Shiller, R. J., Fischer, S., & Friedman, B. M. (1984). Stock Prices and Social Dynamics. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1984(2), 457-510.
    Tetlock, P. C. (2007). Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media In the Stock Market. Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1139-1168.

    下載圖示
    QR CODE