研究生: |
戴淑惠 Tai, Shu-Huei |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
分析師研究報告實用性之探究:以半導體業及平面顯示器業為例 Exploring the Usefulness of Analysts' Reports: The Case of Semiconductor Industry and Flat Panel Display Industry |
指導教授: |
陳慧玲
Chen, Huei-Ling |
口試委員: |
林孝倫
Lin, Hsiao-Lun 黃美祝 Huang, Mei-Juh 陳慧玲 Chen, Huei-Ling |
口試日期: | 2022/04/14 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
高階經理人企業管理碩士在職專班(EMBA) Executive Master of Business Administration |
論文出版年: | 2022 |
畢業學年度: | 110 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 92 |
中文關鍵詞: | 分析師報告 、目標價 、股票推薦評等 |
英文關鍵詞: | Analysts’ reports, Target prices, Stock recommendations |
研究方法: | 次級資料分析 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202200503 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:109 下載:0 |
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分析師研究報告包括盈餘預測、股票推薦、目標價及分析師對該公司前景之論述,許多投資人根據分析師的股票推薦及目標價進行投資決策。因分析師研究報告對投資人決策有重要的影響,本研究目的係探究臺灣本土及外資分析師研究報告之實用性。本研究以半導體及平面顯示器產業中54家上市櫃公司為樣本,樣本期間2020年1月至2021年7月。本研究使用CMoney資料庫及自行蒐集之30家內外資券商分析師報告,檢視分析師預測目標價在不同期間達成情形。此外,本研究檢視不同研究報告股票推薦是否具有相同的意涵。
本研究結果顯示,外資或本土券商分析師,發布負向股票推薦評等報告的比率均低。相較於外資分析師,本土券商負向評等報告的目標價達成率較高。研究結果亦顯示,當內外資分析師發佈正向股票推薦評等報告且看法一致,其目標價達成率較高。股票推薦評等改變報告分析顯示,降評的股票推薦報告目標價在3個月的達成率較高,顯示投資人對負面訊息的短期反應較大。此外,本研究發現分析師對於股票推薦評等的定義並不一致,投資人需審慎閱讀研究報告,而非僅根據股票推薦評等進行投資決策。
Analyst reports include earnings forecasts, stock recommendations, target prices, and analysts’ comments on the company’s prospects. Many investors make investment decisions based on analysts’ stock recommendations and target prices. Because analyst reports have important impacts on investors’ decisions, the purpose of this study is to investigate the practicability of Taiwanese and foreign analysts' reports. This study uses 54 listed companies in the semiconductor and flat-panel display industries as samples. The sample period is from January 2020 to July 2021. This study investigates whether analysts’ target prices in different periods are achieved by using CMoney database and self-collected analyst reports of 30 domestic and foreign securities firms. Furthermore, this study examines whether stock recommendations in different research reports have the same meaning.
The results indicate that the percentage of foreign or local brokerage analysts to issue negative stock recommendation is low. Compared with foreign analysts, local securities companies have a higher target price achievement rate in negative rating reports. The results also show that the percentage of achieving target prices is higher when domestic and foreign analysts issue a positive stock recommendation rating report and have similar opinions. The results of the stock recommendation change show that the target price achievement rate in three month period is higher when analysts downgrade the stock recommendations. The results suggest that investors’ response to negative news is larger in the short term. Moreover, this study finds that analysts’ definitions of stock recommendation ratings are inconsistent. Investors should read research reports carefully, rather than making investment decisions only based on stock recommendation ratings.
一、中文部分
王芊儒,2012,台股外資分析師報告預測目標價之正確性與影響因素分析,國立交通大學資訊管理與財務金融所,未出版碩士論文。
汪姮均,2015,分析師預測目標價偏誤與機構投資人持股之探討,國立交通大學資訊管理與財務金融所,未出版碩士論文。
林美珍與張文菖,2016,台股目標價預測準確度之探討,證券市場發展季刊,第28卷第2期,頁1-36。
李冠賢,2020,券商報告目標價及盈餘預測與外資持股及企業治理型態,國立臺灣大學國際企業所,未出版碩士論文。
黃柏瑞,2014,目標價格預測值、目標價格預測誤差影響因子與目標價格的預測能力,國立交通大學資訊管理與財務金融所,未出版碩士論文。
楊旭敬,2016,投資人情緒和分析師目標價預測,國立交通大學資訊管理與財務金融所,未出版碩士論文。
謝文良、李進生與王芊儒,2013,台股外資分析師報告預測目標價之正確性與影響因素分析。臺大管理論叢,第24卷第1期,頁43-70。
劉學懋,2016,外資研究報告目標價與評等之資訊內涵及對券商買賣行為之影響,國立臺灣大學財務金融所,未出版碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Bradshaw, M. T. 2002. The use of target prices to justify sell-side analysts’ stock recommendations. Accounting Horizons 16(1): 27-41.
Bradshaw, M. T., L D. Brown, and K. Huang. 2013. Do sell-side analysts exhibit differential target price forecasting ability. Review of Accounting Studies 18: 930-955.
Bilinski, P., D. Lyssimachou, and M. Walker. 2013. Target price accuracy: international evidence. The Accounting Review 88(3): 825-851.
Bonini, S., L. Zanetti, R. Bianchini, and A. Salvi. 2010. Target price accuracy in equity research. Journal of Business, Finance and Accounting 37(9): 1177-1217.
Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics 27(3): 285-303.
Demirakos, E. G., N. C. Strong, and M. Walker. 2010. Does valuation model choice affect target price accuracy. European Accounting Review 19(1): 35-72.
Erkilet, G., G. Janke, and R. Kasperzak. 2021. How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy. Journal of Business Economics, Forthcoming.