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研究生: 黃燕靖
Huang, Yan-Jing
論文名稱: 財務績效、公司治理與總體經濟對財務危機發生之影響研究
The Impacts of Financial Performance, Corporate Governance and Macroeconomics on the Prediction of Financial Distress
指導教授: 徐美
Hsu, Mei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 51
中文關鍵詞: 財務危機財務比率公司治理總體經濟ordered probit模型
英文關鍵詞: financial distress, financial ratio, corporate governance, macro-economic, ordered probit model
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202000842
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:155下載:17
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  • 本論文的研究目的為應用ordered probit模型預測公司發生財務危機的機率,以1998年至2018年為研究期間,建立更精確之財務危機預測模型。本文以財務危機發生前一年度的財務比率、公司治理與總體經濟變數資料進行實證分析,使用110家財務危機公司與110家財務正常公司為研究樣本。其中,財務危機公司又分為47家實質財務危機公司與63家準財務危機公司。
    實證結果發現,公司的財務表現、董事會特性以及經理人職能的確會影響財務危機發生的機率,而股權結構與總體經濟因素確實與公司發生財務危機具有關聯性。最後,本研究結果顯示,由財務比率、公司治理與總體經濟變數所建立的模型,對公司發生財務危機的預測能力是較佳的。

    The purpose of research is to apply the ordered probit model to predict the probability of firm's financial distress during the period 1998-2018, and develops a more accurate financial distress prediction model. The estimated models use the financial ratio, corporate governance information, and macro-economic variables. The research samples are 110 financially distressed firms and 110 healthy firms. Among them, financially distressed firms are further divided into 47 substantial financially distressed firms and 63 quasi financially distressed firms.
    The empirical results find that the firm's financial performance, board characteristics and manager’s education levels will indeed affect the probability of financial distress, and the ownership structure and the macro-economic factors also are a relevant to the occurrence of the financial distress. Finally, the research also proves that the model established by the financial ratio, corporate governance information and macro-economic variables has better accuracy to predict the financial distress of the firm.

    目錄 iv 表目錄 v 圖目錄 v 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 2 第三節 研究架構 5 第二章 文獻探討與假說建立 6 第一節 財務危機定義 6 第二節 財務危機與財務比率變數 10 第三節 財務危機與公司治理變數 14 一、董事會特性與股權結構 14 二、經理人教育程度 17 第四節 財務危機與總體經濟變數 19 第三章 樣本選取、資料來源與研究方法 21 第一節 樣本選取與資料來源 21 第二節 變數說明 23 一、被解釋變數 23 二、解釋變數 23 三、控制變數 25 第三節 ordered probit 理論模型建立 28 第四節 財務預測實證模型建立 29 第四章 實證結果 30 第一節 敘述性統計與相關係數分析結果 30 第二節 模型估計結果與邊際效果 32 第五章 結論與限制 40 第一節 研究結論 40 第二節 研究限制 42 參考文獻 43 附錄 46

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