研究生: |
朱容練 Jung-Lien Chu |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
氣-海交互作用對於潛在可預報度之影響 The Impact of Air-Sea Interaction on the Potential Predictability |
指導教授: |
陳正達
Chen, Cheng-Ta |
學位類別: |
博士 Doctor |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2008 |
畢業學年度: | 96 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 76 |
中文關鍵詞: | 潛在可預報度 、海氣交互作用 |
英文關鍵詞: | Potential Predictability, air-sea interaction |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:215 下載:9 |
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傳統潛在可預報度之分析主要以大氣環流模式(Atmospheric general circulation model;簡稱AGCM)資料作為評估的依據。然而,AGCM往往因為海洋與大氣之間並無能量交換,而高估了降水以及環流的強度,由此可知海氣交互作用所扮演之重要角色。另一方面,潛在可預報度主要在評估模式大氣對於邊界驅力的反應程度,然而,海氣耦合模式中,邊界條件與初始條件會隨著時間不斷改變,這將使利用海氣耦合模式進行潛在可預報度分析的難度提高。基於上述理由,為了釐清海氣交互作用對於潛在可預報度之影響,本研究將透過實驗設計,探討局部海氣交互作用對於潛在可預報度之影響。
研究發現,當赤道海溫變化明顯時(如ENSO期間),CTRL與MLM實驗中均顯示較高之潛在可預報度,其中又以赤道地區最為顯著;中高緯度地區,則是以PNA地區較為明顯。在季節的變化上,則是以冬季時有最高之潛在可預報度。這些結果與前人利用AGCM進行潛在可預報度分析所獲得之結論一致,換言之,即使海氣交互作用存在,大氣潛在可預報度的變化依然以ENSO年較高,所有年次之,非ENSO居後的形式呈現。由此可知,實驗中DTEP地區的海溫變化仍是主要影響全球大氣潛在可預報度的驅力。
MLM與CTRL實驗差別在於MLM實驗中允許有海氣交互作用,此作用的存在,造成二組實驗之潛在可預報度存在著些微的差距,而此些微差距透過Monte-Carlo的檢驗方式獲得信心。從變異數分析研究訊號與雜訊的結果發現,海氣交互作用的影響存在著明顯的區域性和季節變化。冬季的反應較夏季明顯。其中太平洋與大西洋的季節變化相對較大;印度洋地區則是以減弱潛在可預報度為主。
至於海氣交互作用影響潛在可預報度的運作過程,則可透過暖年減冷年合成圖進行解釋—在海氣交互作用顯著區域,大氣對於DTEP地區海溫變化一旦產生反應,局部地區的海氣交互作用即開始扮演修飾此反應的角色。修飾的作用主要有二,其一為透過熱通量之交換提供負貢獻至大氣,此作用將造成潛在可預報度之減弱;其二為維持環流強度,此作用將使MLM實驗組的潛在可預報度高於環流強度迅速減弱的CTRL實驗。
本研究比較了AGCM與耦合模式之潛在可預報度,其中使用之耦合模式為AGCM外加一混合層模式,忽略了海洋動力的影響。在未來,若能設計一組實驗,使DTEP地區以外的海洋與大氣為真正之耦合作用,將能增進海氣交互作用對於潛在可預報度影響之了解。此外,若能再加入一組AMIP方式之模擬資料,將有助於釐清海氣交互作用對於潛在可預報度之真正影響。
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