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研究生: 蕭如文
Hsiao, Ju-Wen
論文名稱: 擺盪於自由民主與非自由民主之間:菲律賓政治變遷之研究(1972-2020)
Wavering between Liberal Democracy and Illiberal Democracy: A Case Study of the Political Change in the Philippines from 1972 to 2020
指導教授: 陳文政
Chen, Wen-Cheng
口試委員: 孫國祥 陳嘉銘
Chen, Chia-Ming
陳文政
Chen, Wen-Cheng
口試日期: 2022/01/07
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 東亞學系
Department of East Asian Studies
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 218
中文關鍵詞: 自由民主非自由民主民粹式民主菲律賓政治變遷
英文關鍵詞: liberal democracy, illiberal democracy, populist democracy, political change in the Philippines
研究方法: 次級資料分析歷史研究法比較研究
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202200055
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 本文旨在探析菲律賓的自由民主與非自由民主之政體變遷,根據自由之家資料作為基礎,並以V-Dem智庫與非自由民主指標檢視歷屆政府,透過歷史研究途徑、文獻分析及比較與歷史研究法,以此觀察菲國政體自1972年迄今之變動,探究自由民主與非自由民主之關係。
    菲律賓的非自由民主與自由民主關係微妙,後馬可仕時期政府長期擺動於兩種政體之中,其中,本文不僅檢視兩次人民力量革命對菲國自由民主之影響性,亦觀察歷屆政府表現,以探究政府與自由度變動之相關性。研究結果顯示:菲國的政體變動軌跡並無一致性,即便是面臨人民最重要之三大核心問題—失業、貧窮、犯罪—政府回應之處理能力並未和自由度變化有相關性;人民滿意度亦未與自由度和政府處理問題之能力具有相關性。值得注意的是,菲國後馬可仕時期之政體逐漸朝向非自由主義式民主政體靠攏,艾奎諾三世與杜特蒂政府皆維持在部分自由國家,他們並未促進自由度,然他們處理失業、貧窮、犯罪等問題卻明顯較有成效,並獲得人民的高度肯定,故其正當性高。

    The study investigated the evolution of the relevance between liberal democracy and illiberal democracy in the Philippines from 1972 to 2020. This thesis is based on the data of Freedom House, V-Dem, and illiberal indicators and tries to explore the evolution of the Philippines’ political regimes.
    The Philippines’ political regimes have been wavering between liberal democracy and illiberal democracy for a long period, while especially EDSA Revolution I and EDSA Revolution II strongly influenced the way toward liberal democracy in the post-Marcos period. This thesis examined the impact of the EDSA Revolution, it also explores the relations between governments’ performance and freedom development. Based on the research results, the change of political regime in the Philippines had no consistency. The relationships among unemployment, poverty, crimes, freedom, and people’s satisfaction are nonrelevance. Overall, despite the recent Philippines’ political regimes have become more illiberal, the skills that different government responds the unemployment, poverty, and crimes become robust, and they contribute to higher popular satisfaction and higher regime legitimacy.

    目錄 iv 表目錄 vii 圖目錄 ix 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1 壹、 研究動機 1 貳、 研究目的 6 第二節 研究途徑與研究方法 8 壹、 研究途徑 8 貳、 研究方法 9 第三節 文獻回顧與名詞釋義 12 壹、 文獻回顧 12 貳、 名詞釋義 34 第四節 研究架構與研究限制 37 壹、 研究架構 37 貳、 研究限制 40 第二章 政治體制類型與評估方式之分析 41 第一節 政治體制類型化的分析 41 壹、 政體類型的學術研究之傳統分類 41 貳、 政體類型的學術研究之當代觀點 44 第二節 自由民主政體評估方式之分析 48 壹、 美國自由之家的評估模式 48 貳、 美國Polity IV的評估模式 49 參、 瑞典V-Dem計畫的評估模式 50 肆、 瑞典全球民主指標的評估模式 51 伍、 英國經濟學人的評估模式 51 陸、 德國BTI的評估模式 52 柒、 本節綜合分析 53 第三節 非自由民主體制指標之分析 55 壹、 英國PopuList評估模式 55 貳、 瑞典Timbro Authoritarian Populism Index評估模式 55 參、 問卷調查評估人民的民粹主義態度 56 肆、 檢測政治人物的民粹主義態度 57 伍、 本節綜合分析 58 第四節 本論文採用之體制評估 60 壹、 本文採納的自由民主政體分析方法 60 貳、 本文採納的非自由民主指標 62 第三章 菲律賓邁向自由民主的歷程 65 第一節 非自由民主的馬可仕政府 65 壹、 獨裁治理與逐步放寬自由民主空間 65 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 73 參、 綜合評價 75 第二節 1986年人民力量革命 76 壹、 第一次人民力量革命之背景 76 貳、 第一次人民力量革命之意涵 79 第三節 擺盪於自由與部分自由之間:柯拉蓉政府 81 壹、 重建自由民主與其挫折 81 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 85 參、 人民滿意度 86 第四節 自由民主政體:艾斯特拉達政府 89 壹、 短暫的自由民主政體 89 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 92 參、 人民滿意度 93 第四章 擺動於自由民主與非自由民主之間 97 第一節 提升自由民主品質:羅慕斯政府 97 壹、 促進自由主義式民主 97 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 101 參、 人民滿意度 103 第二節 2001年第二次人民力量革命 105 壹、 第二次人民力量革命之背景 105 貳、 第二次人民力量革命之意涵 107 第三節 壓縮自由民主品質:艾洛雅政府 110 壹、 自由主義式民主式微 110 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 116 參、 人民滿意度 118 第五章 向非自由民主政體的遞變 121 第一節 持平的部分自由政體:艾奎諾三世政府 121 壹、 持平的非自由民主 121 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 125 參、 人民滿意度 127 第二節 自由度下降之非自由民主政體:杜特蒂政府 129 壹、 非自由主義式民主價值的轉變 129 貳、 政府處理核心問題之能力 135 參、 人民滿意度 138 第六章 菲律賓政治體制變動之總體分析 141 第一節 政體變動下的自由品質 141 壹、 羅慕斯主政期間:從非自由主義式民主走向自由民主 141 貳、 柯拉蓉與艾洛雅主政:從自由民主轉向非自由民主 146 第二節 政體不變下的自由品質 158 壹、 馬可仕主政期間:自由品質提高 158 貳、 杜特蒂主政期間:自由品質降低 164 第三節 持平的政體與自由品質 169 壹、 艾斯特拉達主政期間:維持自由主義式民主 169 貳、 艾奎諾三世主政期間:維持非自由主義式民主 173 第四節 總體分析 178 壹、 菲律賓政體變動路徑 178 貳、 菲律賓民主現況 183 第七章 結論 187 第一節 研究發現 187 壹、 菲國政體轉變的軌跡與政府處理能力之相關性 187 貳、 自由度異動軌跡與政府處理能力之相關性 190 參、 人民滿意度與自由度發展、政府績效之相關性 192 肆、 反思自由民主政府與民粹民主政府的正當性 192 第二節 後續研究建議 194 壹、 2022年總統選舉後續發展 194 貳、 研究蒐集方法建議 194 參考文獻 196 一、 中文文獻 196 二、 英文文獻 199 三、 網路資料 210

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