研究生: |
李昭億 Li, Chao-Yi |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
海燕颱風(2013) 之雲解析差時系集預報應用研究 Application and Study of Cloud-Resolving Time-lagged Ensemble Forecasts for Typhoon Haiyan (2013) |
指導教授: |
王重傑
Wang, Chung-Chieh |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2019 |
畢業學年度: | 107 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 80 |
中文關鍵詞: | 海燕颱風 、差時系集預報 、雲解析風暴模式 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU201900873 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:107 下載:29 |
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燕颱風是2013年相當有代表性的強烈颱風,在登陸時的強度超過五級颶風的強度,從這部分來看是歷史少有,根據聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) 的資料顯示,海燕颱風於2013年11月7日1200 UTC達到最強的狀態,其一分鐘平均最大風速達到了170 knots,中心氣壓895hPa,此強度也已經達到五級颶風的標準,海燕颱風本身帶來的災害以登陸時帶來的風暴潮為主。
本研究使用名古屋大學開發的CReSS(Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulaor) 雲解析模式與Wang et al.(2016) 提出的差時系集預報方式,具備高水平和垂直解析度,大的高解析度區域,及更長的預報時間長度,有機會能及早對災害有所掌握,本文進行每6小時的事後預報,討論上述這些優勢是否能夠在預報上對海燕颱風這個案例達到改進,以求日後對於此類容易造成重大災情的案例,有更有效的預報示警手段,減少生命與經濟上的巨大損失。
本研究除了使用差時系集策略外,其他幫助改善預報的作法,包含提高模式設定的層頂高度,同時對初始時間格點資料和觀測強度落差較大的時段,使用先前模式在該時間表現最好,強度最接近的預報來做為初始資料進行預報,以減少初始資料跟觀測資料的差距,進一步降低颱風登陸前兩天內的誤差。
結果顯示,差時系集的高解析度,對於颱風強度的預報結果有明顯幫助,對海燕颱風其路徑也有良好的掌握。自11月4日開始CReSS預報的颱風登陸位置與JTWC的最佳路徑就僅有小於150公里誤差的成員出現,而扣除徑向路徑誤差則有小於100公里誤差的成員。在11月6號0000 UTC之後,誤差都小於100公里,登陸點的誤差則小於50公里。由於良好的路徑預報,颱風在登陸前後有在雷伊泰灣內產生明顯風向轉變,與觀測相符。
強度的表現不採用額外作法時以11月6日0000 UTC的表現為最佳,最大風速達到76.2 m∙s^(-1),最低海平面氣壓則達到891 hPa,相較於JTWC的84.9 m∙s^(-1)和895 hPa,強度的表現已經相當接近,另外由於路徑誤差亦小,能捕捉到Takagi et al.(2015) 所提出,海燕颱風造成風暴潮的原因,因此本差時系集預報所產出的資料,若套用到暴潮模式後是有機會預報出接近真實的風暴潮的出現。而使用了先前CReSS預報作為初始資料,進行了從6日0600 UTC開始的6個預報,這成員預報的最大風速都有超過70 m∙s^(-1),而最低氣壓低於900 hPa,相較於初始場使用GFS資料的預報,風速上又增加了10 m∙s^(-1)以上,而氣壓則下降約20 hPa,故有相當的程度的改善。
總結而言,本研究的CReSS差時系集預報,能夠在海燕颱風登陸前2天內,對於其登陸階段的風速預報誤差大致小於10 m∙s^(-1),中心氣壓則與觀測接近甚至更低,登陸的位置誤差則能在50公里以內,預報表現十分突出。
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