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研究生: 黃俊樹
Huang, Jun-Shu
論文名稱: 美國川普政府發動美中貿易戰決策之研究
The Research on The Decision-Making of Trump Administration Initiating U.S.-China Trade War
指導教授: 范世平
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 政治學研究所
Graduate Institute of Political Science
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 95
中文關鍵詞: 美中貿易戰川普理性決策模式組織行為模式政府政治模式
英文關鍵詞: U.S.-China trade war, Trump, Rational decision-making model, Organizational behavior decision-making model, Government politics decision-making model
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202000516
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:237下載:52
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  • 美國總統川普(Donald John Trump)2017年上任後,首要任務為促使製造業回流美國、平衡美中貿易逆差、並遏止中國對美國知識產權的侵害,為達成施政目標,川普任內發起對中國的貿易戰,也是21世紀美、中兩國最大的衝突。
    本論文以美國學者艾利森(Graham Allison)所著之《Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis》書中提出之三種決策模式做為分析架構,分別以理性模式、組織行為模式與政府政治模式分析川普個人與其幕僚是如何做出美中貿易戰的決策。
    本論文發現:第一、川普個人意識形態鮮明,個人決策主要受到鷹派幕僚影響;第二、美國白宮幕僚辦公室為決策核心單位,具有高度的執行靈活度;第三、川普運用意識形態相近的幕僚,貿易戰核心決策幕僚同質性高,能有效率地執行各項貿易戰事務;第四、川普發動美中貿易戰主要目的為鞏固其領導權力,並尋求於2020年美國總統大選中連任。

    After taking office in 2017, President Donald Trump’s mission is clear: to promote the manufacturing industry return to the United States, balance the US-China trade deficit, and stop China from infringing on U.S. intellectual property. To deliver campaign promises, President Donald Trump initiated a trade war against China, which is the biggest conflict between the United States and China in the 21st century.
    The present thesis focused on how U.S.-China trade war decisions were made by applying the rational model, organizational behavior model, and government politics model, which were proposed in "Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis" by Graham Allison. By utilizing decision-making models, the present thesis analyzed how President Trump and his cabinet members made trade war decisions.
    The result showed that, first, Trump ’s ideology is distinct, and his personal decisions are mainly influenced by his hawkish staff; second, the White House Office is the core trade war decision-making unit and has a high degree of flexibility in execution; third, the ideology of Trump and his staff is highly homogeneous and can effectively execute various trade war affairs; fourth, Trump ’s main purpose in launching the U.S.-China trade war is to consolidate his leadership and re-election in the 2020 US presidential election.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究方法與研究架構 5 第三節 研究範圍與限制 13 第四節 文獻回顧與分析 14 第二章 歐巴馬政府對中貿易政策及美中貿易戰背景 22 第一節 歐巴馬政府對中貿易政策 22 第二節 美中貿易戰背景 24 第三章 理性模式觀察川普政府發動美中貿易戰之決策 32 第一節 遏制中國經濟崛起 32 第二節 川普個人政治信仰與美中貿易戰目標 35 第三節 主要策士那法若成為決策關鍵 38 第四章 組織模式觀察川普政府美中貿易戰之決策 44 第一節 美國參與貿易戰之主要政府部門 44 第二節 美國政府部門因應貿易戰各項作為 49 第三節 川普政府文化與組織程序 59 第五章 政府政治模式觀察川普政府美中貿易戰之決策 63 第一節 美中貿易戰主要決策官僚與立場 63 第二節 決策官僚參與談判 67 第三節 決策官僚特質與潛在風險 69 第六章 結論 74 第一節 研究發現 74 第二節 研究建議 79 參考資料 80

    壹、 中文部分
    一、 書籍
    朱崇旻(譯)(2017)。總統川普—讓美國再度偉大的重整之路,將帶領世界走向何處?(原作者:Trump, D.)臺北市:時報文化出版企業股份有限公司。(原著出版年:2015)
    朱雲鵬、歐宜佩(2019)。中美貿易戰:一場沒有贏家的對決。臺北市:時報文化出版企業股份有限公司。
    余淼杰(2018)余淼杰談中美貿易—全球經貿新格局下的大國博弈。北京市:北京大學出版社。
    呂秋文(2007)。如何撰寫學術論文:以「政治學方法論」為考察中心。臺北市:臺灣商務印書館。
    房文英等(譯)(2018)。致命中國(原作者:Navarro, P.)新北市:博大國際文化。(原著出版年:2011)
    紐文英(2013)。研究方法與論文寫作。臺北市:雙葉書廊有限公司。
    張亞中、左正東主編(2012)。國際關係總論。新北市:揚智文化事業股份有限公司。
    陳珮榆(譯)(2018)。狂妄而務實 川普要什麼?(原作者:Mills, D.Q., & Rosefielde, S.)新北市:出色文化出版事業群.好優文化。(原著出版年:2016)
    楊永明(2019)。川普設的局!?中美貿易戰與科技戰。臺北市:捷徑文化。
    楊永明,2010。國際關係。新北市:前程文化事業股份有限公司。

    二、 期刊
    王健全(2018)。中美貿易戰爭的發展趨勢及其對台灣經濟的影響與因應。亞洲金融季報,46-54。
    呂嘉穎(2018)。以依賴理論分析貿易保護政策及一帶一路倡議造成美、中區域經濟角色之互換。人文社會科學研究,12(3),51-74。doi:10.6284/NPUSTHSSR.201809_12(3).3
    李瓊莉(2012)。美國「重返亞洲」對區域主義之意涵。全球政治評論,(39),87-103。doi:10.29899/JRM.201207.0007
    徐遵慈(2018)。從「重返亞洲」到「印太戰略」-美國對東南亞政策的轉變與最新發展。經濟前瞻,(178),106-111。
    高仁山(2018)。美中貿易戰及其對臺灣產業的可能影響。戰略安全研析,(150),59-68。
    高雅姿(2018)。美中貿易戰之下,我國如何因應?。臺灣經濟研究月刊,41(7),115-121。
    郭家瑾(2018)。從中美易戰反思WTO制度下台灣維護自身經貿利益之可行策略。全球政治評論,(64),23-29。
    陳澤嘉(2019)。美中貿易戰下中國大陸的回應政策。經濟前瞻,(183),110-116。
    趙國材(2019)。誰是中美貿易戰的贏家-中美進入新一輪關稅科技報復戰。海峽評論,(343),13-17。
    劉德海(2019)。川普主義、美陸貿易戰及其對全球經濟影響。Taiwanese Journal of WTO Studies,(31),65-94。
    賴榮偉(2013)。霸權穩定論與歐巴馬政府的亞太戰略發展。人文社會科學研究,7(2),87-118。doi:10.6284/NPUSTHSSR.2013.7(2)6
    顏惠欣(2018)。美中經貿對抗之發展與可能演變,經濟前瞻,(177),87-91。
    魏艾(2019)。維持現狀,爭取中國快速崛起的時間-近期中美貿易談判進程和可能影響。海峽評論,(339),44-48。
    顧瑩華(2019)。美中貿易戰的發展及未來可能進展。經濟前瞻,(185),13-17。

    三、 網路資料
    BBC中文網(2018)。貿易戰來勢洶洶 美宣佈對華600億美元商品加稅。BBC中文網。取自https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-43500214(Nov 24, 2019)
    中央社(2018)。陸對美高粱實施臨時反傾銷,加收保證金。中央社。取自https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201804170209.aspx(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國財政部(2018)。國務院關稅稅則委員會關於對原產於美國500億美元進口商品加徵關稅的公告。中華人民共和國財政部。取自http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201806/t20180616_2930325.html(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國財政部(2018)。國務院關稅稅則委員會關於對原產於美國的部分進口商品(第二批)加徵關稅的公告。中華人民共和國財政部。取自http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201808/t20180803_2980950.html(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國財政部(2019)。國務院關稅稅則委員會發布公告決定對於原產於美國的部分進口商品提高加徵關稅稅率。中華人民共和國財政部。取自http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/gongzuodongtai/201905/t20190513_3256787.html(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國財政部(2019)。國務院關稅稅則委員會關於對美加徵關稅商品第一次排除清單的公告。中華人民共和國財政部。取自http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2019-09/11/content_5429145.htm(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國財政部(2019)。國務院關稅稅則委員會關於對原產於美國的部分進口商品(第三批)加徵關稅的公告。中華人民共和國財政部。取自http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201908/t20190823_3372928.html(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國商務部(2018)。商務部新聞發言人就中國決定對部分自美進口產品加徵關稅發表談話。中華人民共和國商務部。取自http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ag/201804/20180402726864.shtml(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國商務部(2018)。關於對原產於美國的部分商品加徵關稅的公告。中華人民共和國商務部。取自http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ai/201808/20180802773926.shtml(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國商務部(2018)。關於對原產於美國的部分商品加徵關稅的公告。中華人民共和國商務部。取自http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ai/201809/20180902788241.shtml(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國商務部(2018)。關於對原產於美國的部分進口商品加徵關稅的公告。中華人民共和國商務部。取自http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwbfbh/wqfbh/37601/38181/xgzc38187/Document/1626839/1626839.htm(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國商務部貿易救濟調查局(2018)。商務部公告2018年第44號 關於終止對原產於美國的進口高粱反傾銷反補貼的調查公告。中華人民共和國商務部貿易救濟調查局。取自http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/b/e/201805/20180502745327.shtml
    中國商務部貿易救濟調查局(2018)。商務部新聞發言人就中國在世貿組織起訴美國光伏保障措施和可再生能源補貼措施發表談話。中華人民共和國商務部貿易救濟調查局。取自http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ag/201808/20180802775695.shtml(Mar 28, 2020)
    中國國務院(2015)。國務院關於印發《中國製造2025》的通知。中華人民共和國國務院。取自http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2015-05/19/content_9784.htm(Apr 1, 2019)
    周慧盈(2019)。六四30年 美國戰略錯誤造就紅色帝國。中央社。取自https://www.cna.com.tw/project/20190515-tiananmen30/page3-3.html(Apr 1, 2019)
    陳雅文(1995)。次級資料分析途徑(Content Analysis Method)。國家教育研究院。取自http://terms.naer.edu.tw/detail/1683205/(Nov. 24, 2019)
    經濟部國際貿易局(2018)。我國對各洲(地區)貿易情形。經濟部國際貿易局。取自https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/List.aspx?nodeID=1375 (Nov 24, 2019)
    經濟部國際貿易局(2020)。美國對中國301措施大事紀。經濟部國際貿易局。取自 https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=4015&pid=636907(Apr 12, 2019)
    韓潔、王沛(2018)。中美就經貿問題達成共識,決定停止升級關稅等貿易限制措施。新華網。取自http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2018-12/02/c_1123795855.htm(Mar 28, 2020)
    羅綺(2019)。中國商務部批美:貿易逆差「存在水分」不符事實。自由時報。取自https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/2814496(Apr 1, 2019)
    顧力人(2012)。歷史研究途徑(Historical method)。國家教育研究院。取自http://terms.naer.edu.tw/detail/1678683/(Nov. 24, 2019)

    貳、 英文部分
    一、 書籍
    Allison, G., & Phillip, Z. (1999). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Longman.
    Allison, G. (2017). Destined for war. Can America and China Escape Thucydides's trap?. Wilmington: Houghton Mifflin Co.
    Halperin, M. H., & Clapp, P. A. (2006). Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.
    Lau, L. J. (2019). The China-U.S. trade war and future economic relations. Hong Kong: Hong Kong Chinese University Press.
    Nathan, A. J., & Scobell, A. (2014). China's search for security. New York: Columbia University Press.
    Navarro, P. (2015). Crouching Tiger: What China's Militarism Means for the World. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books.
    Paulson, H. M. (2016). Dealing with China: An insider unmasks the new economic superpower. London: Headline.
    Ross, G. H. (2013). Trump-style negotiation: Powerful strategies and tactics for mastering every deal. Hoboken, N.J: Wiley.

    二、 政府報告
    CEA. (2020). Economic Report of the President, Together with The Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers. Washington, DC: Council of Economic Advisers. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2020-Economic-Report-of-the-President-WHCEA.pdf
    Manning, J. E. (2018). Membership of the 115th Congress: A Profile. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://www.senate.gov/CRSpubs/b8f6293e-c235-40fd-b895-6474d0f8e809.pdf
    Manning, J. E. (2020). Membership of the 116th Congress: A Profile. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45583.pdf
    OTMP. (2018). How China’s Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World. Washington, DC: Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FINAL-China-Technology-Report-6.18.18-PDF.pdf
    OTMP. (2019). The United States Reciprocal Trade Act: Estimated Job & Trade Deficit Effects. Washington, DC: Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. Retrieved from http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/RTAReport.pdf?mod=article_inline
    U.S. Department of State. & U.S. Agency for International Development. (2018). Joint Strategic Plan FY 2018-2022. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State. & U.S. Agency for International Development. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/joint-strategic-plan/
    U.S. Department of The Treasury Office of International Affairs. (2019). Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of The Treasury. Retrieved from https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/2019-05-28-May-2019-FX-Report.pdf
    USTR. (2018). 2017 Report to Congress On China’s WTO Compliance. Washington, DC: Office of the United States Trade Representative. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/China%202017%20WTO%20Report.pdf
    USTR. (2018). 2018 Special 301 Report. Washington, DC: Office of the United States Trade Representative. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/2018%20Special%20301.pdf
    USTR. (2018). Findings of the Investigation into China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Washington, DC: Office of the United States Trade Representative. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF
    USTR. (2019). 2019 Special 301 Report. Washington, DC: Office of the United States Trade Representative. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2019_Special_301_Report.pdf

    三、 期刊
    Freeman Jr., C. W. (2019). After the Trade War, a Real War with China? Washington Journal of Modern China, 15, 10–24. Retrieved from http://0-search.ebscohost.com.opac.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=137122727&lang=zh-tw&site=ehost-live
    Guo, M. X., Lu, L., Sheng, L. G., & Yu, M. J. (2018). The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War. Asian Economic Papers, 2018 17(1), 101-120. Retrieved from https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.1162/asep_a_00592
    Hur, N. (2018). Historical and Strategic Concern over the US-China Trade War: Will They Be within the WTO? Journal of East Asia & International Law, 11(2), 393–411. Retrieved from https://0-doi.org.opac.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/10.14330/jeail.2018.11.2.07
    Irwin, D. (2019). Understanding Trump’s Trade War. Foreign Policy, (231), 62–64. Retrieved from http://0-search.ebscohost.com.opac.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=134085421&lang=zh-tw&site=ehost-live
    Powell, B. (2019). The Wrong Trade War. Newsweek Global, 172(3), 30–41. Retrieved from http://0-search.ebscohost.com.opac.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=134164875&lang=zh-tw&site=ehost-live
    Semuels, A. (2019). The Worsening Trade War Exposes a Problem That’s Made In the USA. TIME Magazine, 193(21/22), 18–20. Retrieved from http://0-search.ebscohost.com.opac.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=136597523&lang=zh-tw&site=ehost-live
    Soergel, A. (2019). U.S.-China Trade War Ripples Around the World. U.S. News - The Civic Report, C8–C10. Retrieved from http://0-search.ebscohost.com.opac.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=137981217&lang=zh-tw&site=ehost-live

    四、 網路資料
    BBC News. (2018). Trump's campaign promises - has he delivered on them?. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37982000 (Apr 1, 2019)
    Belvedere, M. J. (2018). Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: China is ‘out of bullets’ to retaliate against Trump’s new tariffs. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/commerce-secretary-wilbur-ross-trump-new-trade-tariffs-aimed-at-modifying-chinas-behavior.html (Apr 7, 2019)
    Brown, C.P. & Kolb, M. (2020). Trump’s Trade War Timeline: An Up-to-Date Guide. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Retrieved from https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide (Mar 13, 2020)
    Brown, C.P. (2019). Trump's Fall 2019 China Tariff Plan: Five Things You Need to Know. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Retrieved from https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-fall-2019-china-tariff-plan-five-things-you-need-know (Mar 28, 2020)
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