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研究生： 潘任飛
PUN, IAM-FEI
論文名稱： Estimation of upper-ocean thermal structure in the North West Pacific Ocean by satellite remote sensing and its application to typhoon intensity change
Estimation of upper-ocean thermal structure in the North West Pacific Ocean by satellite remote sensing and its application to typhoon intensity change
指導教授： 吳朝榮
Wu, Chau-Rou
林依依
Lin, I-I
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年： 2005
畢業學年度： 93
語文別： 英文
中文關鍵詞： typhoon 、upper-ocean thermal structure 、satellite 、intensity change 、SST cooling 、Topical cyclone heat potential (TCHP)
英文關鍵詞： typhoon, upper-ocean thermal structure, satellite, intensity change, SST cooling, Topical cyclone heat potential (TCHP)
論文種類： 學術論文
相關次數： 點閱：228  下載：57 
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    • Lack of the information on upper-ocean thermal structure is one of the identified major reasons causing unsatisfactory typhoon intensity forecast. Therefore it is critical to study the relationship between upper-ocean thermal structure typhoon intensity change. This study uses a two-layer reduced gravity ocean model (TLM_NWPO), TOPEX/Poseidon and JASON-1 sea surface height anomaly data, TRMM/TMI sea surface temperature data and climatological ocean data estimate upper-ocean thermal structure in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The estimated profiles were validated by 2258 co-located and near co-incident in situ profiles from the Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP) and the ARGO floats. It is found that the two-layer reduced gravity model is not always applicable in the entire NWPO; depends on location and month. The ‘safe zones’ where the TLM_NWPO can accurately use are defined. It is encouraging to find that most category-4 and 5 typhoons intensify in the ‘safe zones’, thus we can apply the estimated profiles to study its association with typhoon intensity change.
    All 33 intense and super typhoons (category-4 and 5) occur during the typhoon season (May-October) in the past 6 years (1999-2004) are studied. The sensitivity of four possible parameters (pre-typhoon SST, inner-core SST cooling, pre-typhoon Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and inner-core Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) are assessed. It is found that the inner-core SST cooling is the most sensitive parameter and typhoon stops intensification when the inner-core SST cooling exceeds 2.5℃. In contrast, the often emphasized pre-typhoon TCHP is found to be insensitive. It is found that TCHP is over-supplying parameter and the available TCHP is always at least an order higher than typhoons can extract, suggesting that TCHP should not be a limiting factor controlling typhoon intensification.

    Lack of the information on upper-ocean thermal structure is one of the identified major reasons causing unsatisfactory typhoon intensity forecast. Therefore it is critical to study the relationship between upper-ocean thermal structure typhoon intensity change. This study uses a two-layer reduced gravity ocean model (TLM_NWPO), TOPEX/Poseidon and JASON-1 sea surface height anomaly data, TRMM/TMI sea surface temperature data and climatological ocean data estimate upper-ocean thermal structure in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The estimated profiles were validated by 2258 co-located and near co-incident in situ profiles from the Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP) and the ARGO floats. It is found that the two-layer reduced gravity model is not always applicable in the entire NWPO; depends on location and month. The ‘safe zones’ where the TLM_NWPO can accurately use are defined. It is encouraging to find that most category-4 and 5 typhoons intensify in the ‘safe zones’, thus we can apply the estimated profiles to study its association with typhoon intensity change.
    All 33 intense and super typhoons (category-4 and 5) occur during the typhoon season (May-October) in the past 6 years (1999-2004) are studied. The sensitivity of four possible parameters (pre-typhoon SST, inner-core SST cooling, pre-typhoon Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and inner-core Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) are assessed. It is found that the inner-core SST cooling is the most sensitive parameter and typhoon stops intensification when the inner-core SST cooling exceeds 2.5℃. In contrast, the often emphasized pre-typhoon TCHP is found to be insensitive. It is found that TCHP is over-supplying parameter and the available TCHP is always at least an order higher than typhoons can extract, suggesting that TCHP should not be a limiting factor controlling typhoon intensification.

    Table of Contents List of Tables---------------------------------------iii List of Figures--------------------------------------iv Chapter 1 Introduction-------------------------------1 1.1 Background and Motivation------------------------1 1.2 Objectives of the study--------------------------4 Chapter 2 Upper-ocean thermal structure--------------6 2.1 Introduction-------------------------------------6 2.2 Satellite altimetry SSHA data from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1----------------------------------------------7 2.3 Satellite sea surface temperature data TRMM------9 2.4 Two-layer reduced gravity model------------------11 2.5 Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Calculation------13 Chapter 3 Validation of the estimated upper-ocean thermal structure in the Northwest Pacific Ocean-------------15 3.1 The importance of validation---------------------15 3.2 In situ data sets--------------------------------16 3.2.1 The Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program (GTSPP)----------------------------------------------16 3.2.2 The ARGO floats data set-----------------------17 3.3 Results------------------------------------------18 3.3.1 Validation of the depth of the 20℃ isotherm---18 3.3.2 Validation of the depth of the 26℃ isotherm---20 3.3.3 Validation of the TCHP-------------------------21 3.4 Summary------------------------------------------23 Chapter 4 Relationship between typhoon intensification and upper-ocean thermal structure parameters-------------25 4.1 Introduction-------------------------------------25 4.2 Estimation of the inner-core SST cooling---------26 4.2.1 Introduction to QuikSCAT-----------------------26 4.2.2 Mixed-layer model------------------------------27 4.3 Relationship between parameter 1: pre-typhoon SST and typhoon intensification------------------------------28 4.4 Relationship between parameter 2: inner-core SST cooling and typhoon intensification------------------29 4.5 Relationship between parameter 3 and 4: pre-typhoon TCHP and inner-core TCHP and typhoon intensification-30 4.5.1 TCHP and Inner-Core TCHP-----------------------30 4.5.2 TCHP utilization-------------------------------31 4.6 Summary------------------------------------------34 Chapter 5 Conclusion---------------------------------36 References-------------------------------------------39

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