研究生: |
鄭安琪 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
季內振盪之海氣耦合模式模擬 |
指導教授: | 鄒治華 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2007 |
畢業學年度: | 96 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 71 |
中文關鍵詞: | 季內振盪 、耦合 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:137 下載:3 |
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亞洲地區具有全球最大的季風系統,東亞地區降雨受到夏季季風ㄧ定程度之影響,且季風的肇始與中斷與季內振盪息息相關,因此若能了解季內振盪的生成機制與移行路徑,將有助於對亞洲夏季季風之預報。本研究採用ECHAM5/MPIOM、MIROC3.2(medres)、CNRN、GISS-ER及INM3.0等五個模式比較CGCM與AGCM對ISO的模擬結果,經空間相關係數與均方根誤差之計算後發現,在各個月份對於季內振盪的模擬上,傳統系集平均(ensemble mean)比單一模式模擬為佳,CGCM模擬又比AGCM模擬結果好,其中尤以ECHAM5/MPIOM與MIROC3.2(medres)二個模式表現為優。但各個模式在五、六月份均有模擬變差的現象,此應與五月份亞洲夏季季風肇始有關。
AGCM模式模擬中,無論在孟灣或南海地區,均以渦度場為主要的影響機制,可能是造成模擬季內對流強度過強的因素。而CGCM增加了海氣交互作用,與季內對流相關之地表熱通量產生海溫正距平,此時海表面溫度增高,大氣邊界層之水汽含量也增加,形成有利對流發展之不穩定環境,因邊界條件改變而改善對季內振盪之模擬。而本研究所選取CGCM五個模式中,以MPI模式模擬結果最佳,其次為MIROC3.2(medres)模式,其餘模式模擬ISO不理想的原因除了模式本身物理過程設定外,可能與解析度不同有關。
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