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| 研究生： |
鄭安琪 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
季內振盪之海氣耦合模式模擬 |
| 指導教授： | 鄒治華 |
| 學位類別： |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱： |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
| 論文出版年： | 2007 |
| 畢業學年度： | 96 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 71 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 季內振盪 、耦合 |
| 論文種類： | 學術論文 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：125 下載：3 |
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亞洲地區具有全球最大的季風系統，東亞地區降雨受到夏季季風ㄧ定程度之影響，且季風的肇始與中斷與季內振盪息息相關，因此若能了解季內振盪的生成機制與移行路徑，將有助於對亞洲夏季季風之預報。本研究採用ECHAM5/MPIOM、MIROC3.2(medres)、CNRN、GISS-ER及INM3.0等五個模式比較CGCM與AGCM對ISO的模擬結果，經空間相關係數與均方根誤差之計算後發現，在各個月份對於季內振盪的模擬上，傳統系集平均(ensemble mean)比單一模式模擬為佳，CGCM模擬又比AGCM模擬結果好，其中尤以ECHAM5/MPIOM與MIROC3.2(medres)二個模式表現為優。但各個模式在五、六月份均有模擬變差的現象，此應與五月份亞洲夏季季風肇始有關。
AGCM模式模擬中，無論在孟灣或南海地區，均以渦度場為主要的影響機制，可能是造成模擬季內對流強度過強的因素。而CGCM增加了海氣交互作用，與季內對流相關之地表熱通量產生海溫正距平，此時海表面溫度增高，大氣邊界層之水汽含量也增加，形成有利對流發展之不穩定環境，因邊界條件改變而改善對季內振盪之模擬。而本研究所選取CGCM五個模式中，以MPI模式模擬結果最佳，其次為MIROC3.2(medres)模式，其餘模式模擬ISO不理想的原因除了模式本身物理過程設定外，可能與解析度不同有關。
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