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研究生: 張竣堯
Chang, Chun-Yao
論文名稱: 2017年六月1-3日梅雨鋒面個案之數值模擬研究
Numerical Studies of a Mei-yu Front Event on June 1-3 2017
指導教授: 簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 107
中文關鍵詞: 梅雨鋒面ETKF強降水事件鋒面北退
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202100023
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:139下載:10
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  • 2017年六月1-3日梅雨鋒面個案所帶來的強降水事件區域遍及全台,北中南地區皆有傳出災情,也造成相當大農業與民間設施損失。因此本文使用Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 數值模式搭配Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF)資料同化系統,分析強降雨事件發生原因,並且進一步探討鋒面移動之機制。
    在此個案之降水分析中,透過系集成員分組之合成平均比較並利用相關係數分析,發現造成此個案強降水發生之原因包含:鋒前與中南部山區迎風面出現旺盛低層水氣通量;鋒面南下並且出現北退現象造成臺灣地區第二波降水;低層西南西風場與山脈走向交角較大導致水氣於中南部山區出現明顯輻合現象。此外進一步發現在華南之低壓愈強,導致上游水氣通量愈旺盛輸送至臺灣地區。
    至於鋒面移動分析,透過相關係數與渦度收支診斷,發現鋒面北退現象之關鍵與華南地區低壓再次增強有關,使得西南風於臺灣海峽再次增強,造成鋒面北退現象。此外也發現鋒面位置受華南低壓延伸方向所影響,而低壓延伸方向也受中高層槽向南延伸程度所影響,另外關於華南低壓勢力範圍,也與地面溫度有所相關。

    致謝 ii 摘要 iii 目錄 iv 圖表目錄 vi 第一章 前言 1 1.1文獻回顧 1 1.2研究動機 4 第二章 個案介紹與觀測資料分析 6 2.1 2017年六月1-3日梅雨鋒面個案簡介 6 2.2 綜觀天氣系統配置 7 2.3 累積降水與雷達回波 8 2.4 鋒面北退之現象 10 2.5 小結 10 第三章、資料來源與研究方法 12 3.1資料來源 12 3.2 模式設定與實驗設計 12 第四章、降水之系集數值模擬分析 17 4.1 模擬結果比較 17 4.2 系集成員分組 21 4.3 系集成員分組合成平均分析 23 4.3.1 降水系集合成平均比較 23 4.3.2 環境條件系集合成平均比較 24 4.4 系集成員相關係數分析 31 4.4.1 相關係數實驗說明 31 4.4.2 累積降水之相關係數分析 32 4.4.3 水氣通量之相關係數分析 36 4.5 小結 37 第五章、鋒面移動之系集數值模擬分析 39 5.1 系集成員分組 39 5.2 系集成員分組合成平均分析 40 5.2.1 環境條件合成平均比較 40 5.2.2 渦度方程合成平均比較 44 5.3 系集成員相關係數分析 47 5.3.1 相關係數實驗說明 47 5.3.2 48hr至60hr鋒面移動之相關係數分析 49 5.3.3 華南低壓帶之相關係數分析 50 5.4 小結 51 第六章 、結論 53 6.1 總結 53 6.2 未來展望 55 參考文獻 56 附表 61 附圖 63

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