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研究生: 賴彥竹
LAI, YAN-ZHU
論文名稱: 股吧投資人意見建構投資組合之探究
Exploring the Portfolio Constructed Based on the Opinions of Gub's Investors
指導教授: 陳慧玲
Chen, Huei-Ling
口試委員: 林孝倫
Lin, Hsiao-Lun
林瑞青
Lin, Ruey-Ching
陳慧玲
Chen, Huei-Ling
口試日期: 2022/06/20
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 股吧投資人情緒投資組合夏普比率
英文關鍵詞: Guba, Investor Sentiment, Investment portfolio, Sharpe Ratio
研究方法: 次級資料分析
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202200704
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:130下載:0
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  • 近年來,因網際網路的普及,使得個別投資人較易交換訊息。許多網路投資平台應運而生,讓投資人可以在網路平台發表意見,許多投資人也會對自己所認同的看法轉發文章,形成看漲或看跌情緒,網路投資平台對股票市場的影響力與日俱增。投資人能否根據網路投資平台看漲或看跌情緒形成投資組合以獲利是一重要課題,因此,本研究檢視以股吧投資人情緒建構投資組合能否打敗大盤。
    本研究以2018年至2020年在中國東方財富網股吧所發布的文本做文意分析,並以股吧看漲帖子數量、比例以及看漲情緒指數建構投資組合。本研究旨在檢視我們建構投資組合之Sharpe Ratio是否超越大盤。本研究將上海證券交易所交易的股票根據市值大小分為大、中、小股票池,再將不同籌碼指標根據不同週期參數形成投資組合。
    實證分析結果顯示,本研究根據四項籌碼指標所建構投資組合的Sharpe Ratio與累積報酬率都有超越大盤之表現。然本研究樣本期間之中國股市受中美貿易戰、新冠肺炎疫情等因素影響,股市波動較其他期間劇烈,此為本研究之限制。

    In recent years, the popularity of the Internet has made it easier for individual investors to exchange information. As a result, many online investment platforms have been established. Investors express their opinions on online platforms. Many investors also repost the articles they agree with and form bullish or bearish sentiments. The influence of online investment platforms on the stock market gradually increases. It is crucial to know whether investors can construct investment portfolios based on bullish or bearish sentiment on online investment platforms to make profits. Therefore, this study examines whether the investment portfolio constructed based on investor sentiment can beat the broader market.
    This study does textual analyses using texts published in Guba of Eastmoney from 2018 to 2020. This study constructs investment portfolios based on the number and proportion of bullish sentiment as well as bullish sentiment. This study aims to examine whether our investment portfolios' Sharpe ratio outperforms the market. Stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are divided into large, medium, and small stock pools by market value. This study constructs investment portfolios based on different chip indicators with various cycle parameters.
    The empirical results show that the Sharpe Ratio and cumulative return of the investment portfolio constructed according to the four chip indicators have outperformed the market. The limitation of this study is that the stock market's volatility is more severe than in other periods because the Chinese stock market during the sample period of this study was affected by factors such as the China-US trade war and the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic.

    第一章、緒論 1 第一節、研究動機 1 第二節、研究目的及架構 3 第三節、研究論文貢獻 4 第二章、文獻回顧 5 第一節、網路投資平台相關文獻 5 第二節、投資組合相關文獻 7 第三節、中國股吧與股票市場介紹 9 第四節、中國股吧相關文獻 13 第三章、研究方法 15 第一節、資料來源及股票池劃分 15 第二節、籌碼指標計算 17 第三節、投資組合建立 21 第四節、投資組合績效衡量 23 第四章、實證結果與分析 28 第一節、描述性統計 28 第二節、籌碼指標產生之投資組合於各市值的表現 38 第五章、結論與建議 45 第一節、結論 45 第二節、建議及研究限制 47 參考文獻 49 一、中文部分 49 二、英文部分 50 附錄 51

    一、中文部分
    石勇、唐靜與郭琨,2017,社交媒體投資者關注、投資者情緒對中國股票市場的影響。中央財經大學學報,第7期: 45-53。
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    周亮,2021,投資者關注與股市收益-基於股吧數據挖掘的實證分析。金融發展研究,第4期: 60-68。
    范姜士君,2015,依股價泡沫形成投資策略之可行性分析。國立中央大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
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    陳昱融,2021,股吧投資專家對分析師盈餘預測時間點影響之探究。國立臺灣師範大學管理研究所碩士論文。
    許祐嘉,2021,股吧投資專家對分析師股票推薦影響之探究。國立臺灣師範大學管理研究所碩士論文。
    彭琪淳,2021,股吧投資專家對分析師盈餘預測影響之探究。國立臺灣師範大學管理研究所碩士論文。
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    盧建彰,2021,股吧投資專家對分析師追蹤影響之探究。國立臺灣師範大學管理研究所碩士論文。
    二、英文部分
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    Salekroshani, A., and Vagapova, E. 2020. Persistence of mutual funds returns: do Norwegian portfolio managers consistently beat market benchmarks? Norwegian School of Economics. Master's thesis
    Yang, J., 2021. Crowdsourced investors' recommendations and stock return synchronicity. Working paper.

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