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研究生: 謝承芳
Hsieh, Cheng-Fang
論文名稱: 臺灣六都間人口遷移模型建構
Modeling Migration Patterns among Municipalities in Taiwan
指導教授: 張國楨
Chang, Kou-Chen
口試委員: 張國楨
Chang, Kou-Chen
雷祖強
Lei, Tsu-Chiang
陶宏麟
Tao, Hung-Lin
口試日期: 2024/06/30
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地理學系
Department of Geography
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 55
中文關鍵詞: 六都人口遷移遷移吸引力重力模型主成分分析
英文關鍵詞: Six Municipalities, Population Migration, Migration Attractiveness, Gravity Model, Principal Component Analysis
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202401547
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 臺灣現今設籍於都會區內的人口數占總人口數超過七成,且都會區間的人口遷移也越發頻繁,民國112年間就有超過十九萬遷移人次,大量的人口遷移已然是各部門的重要議題,因此本研究試圖理解影響遷移吸引力之社會經濟因素,並建立符合臺灣都會區情境之人口遷移模型,藉以推估人口遷移之分配情形。本研究蒐集民國105至107年各都會區人口數與人口遷移矩陣資料,透過人口遷移的重力模型回推各都會區在均質無差異前提下之理論距離,並將其與實際距離之比值作為社會經濟因素差異所造成之遷移吸引力,再蒐集十七項社會經濟因素資料並利用主成分分析將其整合為三個社會經濟面相,透過簡單線性迴歸來建立人口遷移吸引力模型,並藉此調整原始重力模型中的距離參數,建立符合臺灣都會區情境之人口遷移重力模型。最後投入民國108年之資料推估人口遷移情形,並與實際情形進行比較。研究結果發現,臺灣都會區間社會經濟因素主要可以由「生活成本」、「生活機能」及「社會安全」三個面向來理解,其中「生活成本」及「生活機能」可顯著解釋約四成之人口遷移吸引力,生活成本越高則吸引力越小、生活機能越高則吸引力越大,並且生活機能之影響較大。此外,利用人口遷移吸引力所調整之重力模型有助於改善推估結果,而推估結果也與實際情形有相同趨勢,然而在桃園遷移至雙北及桃園遷移至高雄的低估情形最為嚴重、臺中遷移至桃園的高估情形最為嚴重,代表人口遷移吸引力仍然受其他因素所影響,是本研究無法解釋之處。

    Taiwan’s population registered in municipalities now accounts for more than 70% of the total population. Inter-municipality population migration also continues to increase, with 192,726 migrations recorded in 2023. This study aims to understand the socioeconomic factors influencing migration attractiveness and to develop a model suited to the context of Taiwan's municipalities to estimate the distribution of migration. This study collected data on population and migration matrices between municipalities from 2016 to 2018. Using the Gravity Model of migration, we back-calculated the theoretical distances between municipality pairs under the assumption of homogeneity. The ratio of theoretical distances to actual distances was used to represent the migration attractiveness caused by socioeconomic differences. Subsequently, data on 17 socioeconomic factors were gathered and integrated into three socioeconomic dimensions through Principal Component Analysis. A linear regression was employed to develop a migration attractiveness model, which was then used to adjust the distance parameter in the original gravity model. This adjustment tailored the gravity model to the context of Taiwan's municipalities. Finally, data from the 2019 were used to estimate the migration and compare it with the actual migration data. This study found that the socioeconomic factors affecting inter- municipality migration in Taiwan can be understood through three dimensions: cost of living, living amenities, and social security. Cost of living and living amenities significantly explained about 40% of migration attractiveness, with higher living costs reducing attractiveness and better living amenities increasing attractiveness, with the impact of living amenities being greater. In addition, the gravity model adjusted by migration attractiveness improved the estimation results, showing trends consistent with actual migration patterns. However, the model significantly underestimated migration from Taoyuan to Taipei and Taoyuan to Kaohsiung, while it significantly overestimated migration from Taichung to Taoyuan. This indicates that migration attractiveness is still influenced by other factors not explained in this study.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 2 第三節 研究限制 3 第二章 文獻回顧 4 第一節 人口遷移的研究 4 第二節 影響人口遷移之因素 5 第三節 人口遷移的重力模型 8 第四節 主成分分析 12 第五節 可調整地區單元問題 13 第三章 研究方法 14 第一節 研究流程 14 第二節 研究範圍 16 第三節 研究資料與資料前處理 16 第四章 研究結果與討論 25 第一節 都會區間社會經濟因素 25 第二節 都會區間人口遷移吸引力模型 33 第三節 都會區間人口遷移推估 36 第五章 結論與建議 48 第一節 研究結論 48 第二節 後續建議 49 參考文獻 50

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