研究生: |
徐邦琪 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
台灣地區五-七月豪(大)雨之中長期預報與季內振盪 |
指導教授: |
鄒治華
Tsou, Chih-Hua 柯文雄 Kau, Wen-Shung |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2001 |
畢業學年度: | 89 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 81 |
中文關鍵詞: | 豪(大)雨 、季內振盪 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:212 下載:6 |
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摘要
台灣西部地區豪(大)雨的發生頻率最大值出現在六月,次高峰出現在七月或八月,顯示台灣西部地區豪(大)雨可能受其背景環流東亞夏季季風之影響。本研究的目的即在探討東亞夏季季風的低頻變化-季內振盪與台灣西部地區豪(大)雨之關係。
本研究採用中央氣象局各地測站之降雨資料、CDC所分析之1979~1998年外逸長波輻射(OLR), NCEP 重新分析之1979~1998年1000hPa至100hPa共17層之水平風場、垂直速度場、溫度場,以及CMAP之降水資料,並以在頻率及時間域中皆有良好區域性的小波轉換(Wavelet),進行資料的濾波。分析結果顯示南海地區五-七月30~60天振盪的年際變化與台灣西部地區五-七月豪(大)雨發生頻率的年際變化成正相關,而10~20天對流振盪與台灣地區豪(大)雨兩者之間無顯著的相關性。由南海30~60天振盪強年之延遲相關分析發現,30~60天波動到達南海後,短暫滯留、強度增強,此後波動轉向北及東北移至華南/台灣及日本東南方,可能有利於台灣、華南地區的對流成長,進而形成豪(大)雨。若能了解南海地區30~60天振盪的結構與移動,將有助於掌握台灣地區豪(大)雨中期預報。本文進一步利用Charney(1963)的尺度分析方法,推導出三維流線函數趨勢方程,並以1998年為例,探討夏季30~60天振盪發展及移行的機制。我們發現海氣交互作用有利於對流發展,SST較高的區域有利於對流的發展。大氣內部的動力機制也是影響30~60天對流振盪移行與發展的重要因素,30~60天對流振盪移行前緣為低層正渦度及輻合中心。渦度平流在高層效應較大,可經由垂直耦合作用影響低層環流之移行發展;潛熱釋放與靜力穩定度的作用在對流區呈現反相,而潛熱釋放產生的正渦度趨勢有領先降雨帶之特徵。
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