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研究生: 徐邦琪
論文名稱: 台灣地區五-七月豪(大)雨之中長期預報與季內振盪
指導教授: 鄒治華
Tsou, Chih-Hua
柯文雄
Kau, Wen-Shung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2001
畢業學年度: 89
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 81
中文關鍵詞: 豪(大)雨季內振盪
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 摘要
    台灣西部地區豪(大)雨的發生頻率最大值出現在六月,次高峰出現在七月或八月,顯示台灣西部地區豪(大)雨可能受其背景環流東亞夏季季風之影響。本研究的目的即在探討東亞夏季季風的低頻變化-季內振盪與台灣西部地區豪(大)雨之關係。
    本研究採用中央氣象局各地測站之降雨資料、CDC所分析之1979~1998年外逸長波輻射(OLR), NCEP 重新分析之1979~1998年1000hPa至100hPa共17層之水平風場、垂直速度場、溫度場,以及CMAP之降水資料,並以在頻率及時間域中皆有良好區域性的小波轉換(Wavelet),進行資料的濾波。分析結果顯示南海地區五-七月30~60天振盪的年際變化與台灣西部地區五-七月豪(大)雨發生頻率的年際變化成正相關,而10~20天對流振盪與台灣地區豪(大)雨兩者之間無顯著的相關性。由南海30~60天振盪強年之延遲相關分析發現,30~60天波動到達南海後,短暫滯留、強度增強,此後波動轉向北及東北移至華南/台灣及日本東南方,可能有利於台灣、華南地區的對流成長,進而形成豪(大)雨。若能了解南海地區30~60天振盪的結構與移動,將有助於掌握台灣地區豪(大)雨中期預報。本文進一步利用Charney(1963)的尺度分析方法,推導出三維流線函數趨勢方程,並以1998年為例,探討夏季30~60天振盪發展及移行的機制。我們發現海氣交互作用有利於對流發展,SST較高的區域有利於對流的發展。大氣內部的動力機制也是影響30~60天對流振盪移行與發展的重要因素,30~60天對流振盪移行前緣為低層正渦度及輻合中心。渦度平流在高層效應較大,可經由垂直耦合作用影響低層環流之移行發展;潛熱釋放與靜力穩定度的作用在對流區呈現反相,而潛熱釋放產生的正渦度趨勢有領先降雨帶之特徵。

    目錄 誌謝 -------------------------------------------------------Ⅰ 摘要 -------------------------------------------------------Ⅱ 目錄 -------------------------------------------------------Ⅲ 圖表說明 ---------------------------------------------------Ⅳ 一、 前言 ---------------------------------------------------1 二、資料與研究方法 -----------------------------------------10 2.1 資料與濾波方法 ------------------------------------10 2.2 流線函數趨勢方程式 --------------------------------11 2.3 非絕熱加熱率之計算 --------------------------------17 三、台灣地區五-七月豪(大)雨與季內振盪 ----------------------21 3.1 台灣豪(大)雨的氣候特徵 ----------------------------21 3.2 季內對流振盪與東亞季風對流 ------------------------22 3.3 台灣豪(大)雨與南海季內對流振盪 --------------------23 四、1998年30~60天對流振盪之移行 ----------------------------28 4.1 南亞地區30~60天季內對流的東移 ---------------------30 4.2 東亞地區30~60天對流振盪的北移 ---------------------34 4.3 三維流線函數趨勢與30~60天OLR的北移 ----------------37 五、結論與討論 ---------------------------------------------44 參考文獻 ---------------------------------------------------49 附圖表 -----------------------------------------------------56

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