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研究生: 蕭羽利
論文名稱: 芭瑪颱風(2009)與東北季風共伴效應之數值模擬分析
指導教授: 簡芳菁
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 123
中文關鍵詞: 芭瑪地形東北季風共伴效應夫如數
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:105下載:9
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  • 芭瑪(Parma)颱風於2009年10月3-7日通過呂宋島北方,颱風中心與台灣南端最近距離雖達250 km,仍在宜蘭以及花蓮地區造成超大豪雨。為了解降水機制,本研究利用數值模式(WRF)進行模擬,以探討東部地區強降水之成因,並針對颱風環流,與東北季風的共伴效應,以及台灣地形進行敏感度分析。
      當颱風環流的暖溼空氣通過台灣東側,與東北方冷乾空氣輻合後西移,輻合氣流受地形抬升後舉升凝結,使對流發展旺盛而降下豪雨。其中宜蘭地區於颱風開始南移後有共伴效應加強水氣傳送,使降水持續。花蓮地區由於山脈緊鄰海岸且夫如數較宜蘭地區小,氣流不易被舉升,使降水量少且集中於外海。此外,芭瑪颱風移速緩慢,使對流系統通過台灣東側的時間加長,也是造成超大豪雨的原因之ㄧ。
    本研究也利用改變地形高度、環流強弱等因素進行測試,發現
    當地形降低時,於東岸低層氣流輻合減弱,同時氣流被舉升形成的對流胞亦減弱;當地形高度增加時,雖輻合強度增加,但此時夫如數僅0.4,低層氣流因不易被舉升而轉為繞山,使降水量減少。當環流減弱時,台灣東側之輻合強度、風速以及水氣混合比皆相對減弱,此時颱風內對流系統以及共伴效應所產生之對流胞強度亦較弱。同時,東北季風受地形舉升為東北部帶來持續且穩定的降水,經移除地形或移除芭瑪颱風的敏感度實驗,在宜蘭地區降水皆僅剩原本的1/3左右,顯示宜蘭地區之強降水主要是由地形與共伴效應交互作用而形成,芭瑪颱風外圍環流的對流系統對此區影響相對較小。

    致謝………………………………………………………………………i 摘要…………………………………………………………………… ii 目錄……………………………………………………………………iii 圖表目錄…………………………………………………………………v 第一章 前言…………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 文獻回顧………………………………………………………1   1.2 研究動機………………………………………………………4 第二章 個案分析與介紹……………………………………………… 6 2.1 地面綜觀天氣圖………………………………………………6 2.2 衛星雲圖………………………………………………………8 2.3 雷達回波…………………………………………………… 10 2.4 累積降水…………………………………………………… 11 2.5 小結………………………………………………………… 13 第三章 資料來源與研究方法……………………………………… 15 3.1 WRF模式簡介……………………………………………… 15 3.2 WRF TC bogus介紹………………………………………… 16 3.3 資料來源…………………………………………………… 17 3.4 模式設定與實驗設計……………………………………… 18 四、數值模擬結果…………………………………………………… 20 4.1 模擬控制組校驗與分析…………………………………… 20 4.1.1 路徑與移動速度…………………………………… 20 4.1.2 海平面氣壓、重力位高度及水平風場…………… 21 4.1.3 雷達回波…………………………………………… 23 4.1.4 累積降水…………………………………………… 25 4.2 強降水機制分析…………………………………………… 28 4.2.1 氣流場與水氣分布………………………………… 28 4.2.2 對流移動與地形舉升……………………………… 30 4.3 小結………………………………………………………… 36 第五章 強降水機制敏感度測試………………………………………39 5.1 颱風環流強度測試………………………………………… 39 5.2 台灣地形高度測試………………………………………… 46 5.3 東北風對台灣地區降水影響……………………………… 58 5.4 小結………………………………………………………… 61 第六章 結論………………………………………………………… 64 參考文獻……………………………………………………………… 70 附表…………………………………………………………………… 74 附圖…………………………………………………………………… 75

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