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研究生: 陳志揚
論文名稱: 共同基金業務對分析師盈餘預測行為之影響─以中國為例
指導教授: 陳慧玲
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 69
中文關鍵詞: 關聯共同基金分析師追蹤盈餘預測修正次數盈餘預測樂觀程度
英文關鍵詞: Mutual fund affiliation, Analysts’ following, Forecast revisions, Optimism
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:467下載:14
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  • 本研究旨在探討中國綜合型證券商共同基金業務對所屬研究部門盈餘預測行為之影響。本研究檢視關聯證券商研究部門對關聯共同基金所持股票是否追蹤程度較高、修正次數較多及盈餘預測較樂觀偏頗,此外,本研究檢視關聯證券商研究部門分析師盈餘預測報告對關聯共同基金調整持股比重之影響為何。
    實證結果顯示,關聯研究機構對關聯共同基金所持有的股票追蹤程度較高。此外,關聯研究機構對關聯共同基金的持股提供較多次的盈餘預測修正及較樂觀的盈餘預測報告。特別地,關聯共同基金持股比重高之股票,關聯證券商研究機構的盈餘預測顯著較樂觀。另外,關聯共同基金調整持股比重之方向並未與關聯分析師盈餘預測樂觀程度有顯著關聯。

    This study investigates whether research departments are motivated to cover those stocks in which the affiliated mutual funds have invested. Furthermore, this study examines whether a mutual fund’s stock holdings affect the frequency and optimism of the research produced by analysts affiliated with the mutual fund. Finally, this study examines how the optimism of earnings forecasts issued by analysts affiliated with the mutual fund affects the change of the mutual funds’ portfolio weights.
    The empirical results reveal that the mutual fund affiliation affects research departments’ decisions to cover a stock. Moreover, the frequency of forecast revisions and the optimism of the earnings forecasts are significantly affected by the affiliated mutual fund’s stock holdings. We also find that the greater the affiliated mutual funds weigh a stock in their portfolios, the higher the analyst optimism. However, the optimism of earnings forecasts issued by analysts affiliated with the mutual fund does not affect the change of the mutual funds’ portfolio weights.

    中文摘要 ....................I 英文摘要 ....................II 目錄 .......................III 圖表目錄 ....................IV 第一章 緒論 ................................1 第一節 研究動機 .........................1 第二節 研究目的 .........................3 第三節 研究架構 .........................4 第四節 研究貢獻 .........................6 第二章 文獻回顧 .............................7 第一節 承銷業務對證券分析師行為之影響 .......7 第二節 影響證券分析師利益衝突的其他原因 ......9 第三節 共同基金對證券公司其他業務之影響 .....10 第四節 中國分析師的預測表現與市場關聯 .......11 第三章 研究設計及方法 ........................14 第一節 研究假說 .........................14 第二節 樣本選取與資料來源 .................16 第三節 實證模式與統計方法 .................17 第四章 實證結果及分析 .........................23 第一節 描述性統計 ........................23 第二節 中國證券商對關聯共同基金持股之追蹤研究 ..36 第三節 中國證券商對關聯共同基金持股之盈餘預測特性.42 第四節 關聯共同基金調整持股與分析師盈餘預測樂觀程度關聯性..51 第五節 敏感性分析 ......................56 第五章 結論與建議 ..........................65 第一節 研究結論 ........................65 第二節 建議 ...........................66 參考文獻 .....................................67

    壹、中文部分
    方軍雄,2007,我國上市公司資訊披露透明度與證券分析師盈餘預測,金融研究,第6期,第136-148頁。
    石桂峰、蘇力勇與齊偉山,2007,財務分析師盈餘預測精確度決定因素的實證分析,財經研究,第33卷第5期,第62-71頁。
    吳東輝與薛祖雲,2005,財務分析師營利預測的投資價值:來自深滬A股市場的證據,會計研究,第8期,第37-43頁。
    岳衡與林小馳,2008,證券分析師VS統計模型:證券分析師盈餘預測的相對準確性及其決定因素,會計研究,第8期,第40-49頁。
    原紅旗與黃倩茹,2007,承銷商分析師與非承銷商分析師預測評級比較研究,中國會計評論,第五卷第三期,第285-304頁。
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    貳、英文部分
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    Ljungqvist, A., F. Marston, and W. J. Wilhelm. 2006. Competing for securities underwriting mandates: banking relationships and analyst recommendations. The Journal of Finance 61(1): 301-340.
    Ljungqvist, A., F. Marston, L. T. Starks, K. D. Wei, and H. Yan. 2007. Conflicts of interest in sell-side research and the moderating role of institutional investors. Journal of Financial Economics 85: 420-456.
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    Ritter, J. R., and D. Zhang. 2007. Affiliated mutual funds and the allocation of initial public offerings. Journal of Financial Economics 86: 337-368.

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