北行颱風敏督利(2004)在離台之後，形成第二波系統性的豪大雨，本文對此波強降水的成因，以WRF模式進行模擬。首先，透過敏感度測試，找出最佳之物理組合為K-F積雲參數法與WSM6雲微物理過程。利用這個組合，我們以NCEP GFS初始場，透過三維資料同化加入觀測資料，進行2004年7月2日12UTC至4日1200UTC的模擬作為控制組。由控制組結果可知，低層西南風持續輸送來自南海地區的潮濕水氣，再加上7月3日1200UTC起，於北緯22至23度間的中層大氣出現西風移入對流胞，成為第二波降水的水氣來源。西南部的低層水氣因形成輻合及受地形抬升，而發生對流降水。
另外，再使用CWB GFS作為模式初始場，透過觀測及模式結果綜合分析2002年雷馬遜(Rammasun)颱風、2003年柯吉拉(Kujira)颱風及蘇迪勒(Soudelor)颱風，和敏督利颱風在通過北緯30度附近時，台灣西南部之環境差異。研究發現，敏督利颱風能符合所有的西南氣流降水因子，包含低層潮濕的西南氣流、西南氣流內環境不穩定、地形抬升使水氣凝結、強西南風、西南氣流內形成正渦度和準滯留(quasi-stationary)的綜觀系統等，再加上其移動路徑與台灣距離最近，且以最長的時間通過北緯30至35度之間，延長迎風面上東北-西南走向的氣壓分布之滯留時間，因此敏督利颱風於離台後形成強烈的第二波系統性降水。根據四颱風個案模擬降水因子之分析顯示，對未來北行颱風進行西南氣流降水因子的分析，能用以預報颱風離台後引發第二波降水的可能性。

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