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研究生: 游喬茵
You, Qiao-Yin
論文名稱: 政治極化如何形成-以台灣為例
How Political Polarization is Formed? The Case of Taiwan
指導教授: 印永翔
Ying, Yung-Hsiang
口試委員: 何宗武 徐之強
口試日期: 2021/07/21
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 48
中文關鍵詞: 政治極化經濟極化社會極化吉尼係數追蹤資料
英文關鍵詞: political polarization, economic polarization, social polarization, Gini coefficient, panel data
研究方法: 次級資料分析
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202101209
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 臺灣的政治歷史中,主要為國民黨與民進黨在互相抗衡,在兩黨獨大的情況下,政治極化的現象愈演愈烈對於社會將帶來負面的影響。民眾會因為政治菁英訴諸情感、同溫層間的感染而提高政治活動參與程度。在民眾參與政治活動的過程中,立場的對立就容易產生衝突,立場兩端的群體互相謾罵與不認同,即是政治兩極分化對社會帶來的危害。本研究主要以臺灣地區為研究對象,以1994年至2019年的總統選舉、直轄市長選舉、縣市長選舉和立委選舉作為政治極化指數衡量的選舉層級。模型納入經濟面與社會面的因素,包含衡量所得不均的吉尼指數,與社會面的每萬人口醫院病床數、青壯年人口、老年人口、教育程度等因子,探討是何種原因使得政治極化更嚴重。本文使用追蹤資料的固定效果模型與隨機效果模型做實證研究,結果發現吉尼指數在臺灣只有在直轄市長選舉的情況下對政治極化有顯著的正向影響。並且在縣市長選舉層級下,本篇論文的研究的假設才有比較好的體現,顯示出每萬人口醫院病床數、教育程度在高中以上、青壯年人口、老年人口等社會極化現象對政治極化會有顯著的影響,代表經濟極化之吉尼指數則是落遲一期會對政治極化有顯著影響,北部相較中部和東部會有較嚴重的政治極化,且政治極化會隨著時間而增加。

    In the political history of Taiwan, the KMT and the DPP fought against each other. Under the approximate two-party system, the phenomenon of increasing political polarization would bring negative effects on the society. People will increase their participation in political activities because the political elite appeals to emotion and the infection between the echo chamber. In the process of people's participation in political activities, the opposition of positions is prone to conflicts. Groups at both ends of the positions abuse and disapprove each other, which is the harm that political polarization brings to the society. This study mainly takes Taiwan as the research object, and takes the presidential election, municipal mayor election, country and city mayor election and legislature election from 1994 to 2019 as the election hierarchy measured by the political polarization index. Economic and social factors were included in the model, including the Gini index to measure income inequality. The number of hospital beds per 10,000 population, young and middle-aged population, elderly population, education level and other factors related to social aspects. Explore the reasons for increasing political polarization. Using the fixed effect model and random effect model of panel data, this paper finds that the Gini index has a significant positive effect on political polarization only in the election of municipal mayor in Taiwan. Moreover, the hypothesis of the research is better reflected at the country and city mayor election. The results show that the number of hospital beds per 10,000 population, the education level above high school, the young and middle-aged population, the elderly population and other social polarization phenomena have a significant impact on the political polarization. Gini index of economic polarization also have a significant impact on political polarization with one period lag. Compared with the central and eastern regions, the north has a more serious political polarization. Moreover, the political polarization will increase with time.

    謝辭 i 中文摘要 ii Abstract iii 目次 iv 表次 vi 圖次 vii 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究流程 5 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 極化現象 6 一、政治極化 6 二、經濟極化 8 三、社會極化 10 第三章 研究方法 13 第一節 研究架構與假說 13 第二節 實證模型 15 第三節 研究對象與變數定義 17 一、應變數 17 二、自變數 18 三、控制變數 23 四、資料來源 23 第四節 分析方法 25 一、追蹤資料(Panel Data)分析 25 二、普通最小平方法模型 26 三、固定效果模型 26 四、隨機效果模型 27 五、Hausman 檢定 28 第四章 實證結果與分析 30 第一節 敘述性統計 30 一、應變數 30 二、自變數 32 三、控制變數 34 第二節 追蹤資料分析結果 35 一、隨機效果模型 38 二、固定效果模型 39 三、模型比較 41 第五章 結論與建議 42 第一節 結論 42 第二節 研究限制與未來發展 44 參考文獻 45

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