研究生: |
劉俐利 Liu, Li-Li |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
不同媒體之新聞情緒對ESG-ETFs報酬率之影響 The Effect of News Sentiment of Different Media on Rate of Return of ESG-themed ETFs |
指導教授: |
周德瑋
Chou, De-Wai |
口試委員: | 鍾建屏 李修全 |
口試日期: | 2021/07/01 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
管理研究所 Graduate Institute of Management |
論文出版年: | 2021 |
畢業學年度: | 109 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 58 |
中文關鍵詞: | 文字探勘 、新聞情緒 、事件研究法 、迴歸分析 |
英文關鍵詞: | text mining, news sentiment, event study, regression analysis |
研究方法: | 事件研究法 、 回歸分析 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202100707 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:379 下載:82 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
投資人能在網路上透過不同來源的媒體獲取眾多資訊,並對獲取的資訊有所反應。因此本研究利用文字探勘技術,從鉅亨網、中國時報、經濟日報、自由時報、聯合報及蘋果日報的網站中,蒐集2019年7月至2021年1月與ESG主題ETF相關的新聞,並量化新聞詞語為新聞情緒。使用事件研究法,探討所有媒體來源的新聞情緒、不同媒體來源的新聞與其新聞情緒是否造成異常報酬率,並將造成異常報酬率之媒體進行差異檢定,接著使用迴歸模型分析所有媒體來源的新聞情緒與新聞數量、不同媒體來源的新聞情緒及新聞數量對異常報酬率之影響,以及探討新聞發布使市場反應的效率性。實證結果顯示,不同新聞媒體的影響力不同,財經新聞媒體如經濟日報、鉅亨網及新聞情緒強烈的蘋果日報在多數情況下比風格偏屬政治的聯合報及自由時報更具影響力,且多數新聞媒體影響當日報酬率,並不會持續影響至隔日的報酬率。
Investors can obtain a lot of information from different sources of media on the Internet and react to the news in real time. Therefore, use text mining to collect news related to ESG-themed ETFs from July 2019 to January 2021, which are from the websites of Anue, China Times, Economic Daily News, Liberty Times, United Daily News, and Apple Daily, then quantitative news words as news sentiment. Use event study to explore whether the news sentiment of all media sources, the news of different media sources and their news sentiment cause abnormal return, and then use ANOVA to analyze the differences among means of the media that caused the abnormal return. Then use regression models to analyze the influence of the news sentiment and the news amount of all media sources and different media sources on the abnormal return. And discuss the efficiency of the market price react to the news. The empirical results show that the rate of return is influenced by varying degrees with different media. Financial news media such as Economic Daily News, Anue, and Apple Daily with strong news sentiment are more influential than the politically-styled media such as United Daily News and Liberty Times in most cases. Most news media affect the rate of return on the day and will not continue to affect the rate of return on the next day.
中文部分:
王南喻、黃憲彰(2011)。探討內線交易醜聞對證券股價之影響─以某上市公司為例。智慧科技與應用統計學報,9(2),69-82。doi: 10.29807/jtitas.201112.0005
王肇蘭、廖思雯、池祥萱(2009)。公司是否能藉由媒體曝光度減緩非預期負面盈餘宣告對股市的衝擊? 以台灣金融業為例。台灣管理學刊, 9(2), 165-184。
江婉琪、林應龍、禹良治、張鈺旋、陳俞安、王復中、 . . . 林寬佳(2019)。運用文字探勘分析全民健保與五項總額支付制度之民眾知覺感受。台灣公共衛生雜誌,38(2),189-202。doi: 10.6288/tjph.201904_38(2).107137
余清祥、葉昱廷(2020)。以文字探勘技術分析臺灣四大報文字風格。數位典藏與數位人文(6),69-96。
李美華(2010)。台灣主流媒體之科學新聞產製:全球暖化新聞的消息來源研究。載於科普產學合作支援計畫辦公室(主編),科學傳播論文集2(頁193-233)。台灣:科普產學合作支援計畫辦公室。doi:10.6930/9789868556010.201005.0007
周慶祥(2012)。從價值鏈理論探討報紙新聞網站資訊價值創造模式。玄奘資訊傳播學報,(9),79-117。doi:10.29594/xlzy.201207.0004
林宜萱(2013)。財經領域情緒辭典之建置與其有效性之驗證-以財經新聞為元件(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學會計學研究所,臺北市。
邱冠中(2017)。跨媒體平台事件與台灣股票市場之關聯性研究(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學資訊管理學研究所,臺北市。
孫久悌(2013)。新聞報導對於併購事件市場反應之影響(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學資訊管理學研究所,臺北市。
郝沛毅、歐仁彬、黃天受、林振穎、吳建生(2018)。透過新聞文章預測股價漲跌趨勢-結合情緒分析、主題模型與模糊支持向量機。資訊管理學報,25(4),363-395。
張津挺(2015)。中文財務情緒字典建構與其在財務新聞分析之應用(未出版之碩士論文)。臺北市立大學資訊科學系,臺北市。
莊凱翔、郝沛毅(2018)。對社群媒體進行文字勘與情緒分析來預測股票走勢。載於國立中央大學(主編),TANET2018 臺灣網際網路研討會(頁1326-1330)。台灣:國立中央大學doi:10.6861/TANET.201810.0246
陳俊甫(2016)。透過社會大眾情緒預測台灣股市(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學電機工程學研究所,臺北市。
陳建輝、謝邦昌、張光昭(2016)。應用文字探勘技術與深層學習方法預測台灣個股短期漲跌趨勢。Journal of Data Analysis,11(6),63-102。doi: 10.6338/jda.201612_11(6).0004
陳昱豪(2017)。考慮投資人情緒下新聞對成交量之影響(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學財務金融學研究所,臺北市。
黃金蘭、Cindy K. Chung、Natalie Hui、林以正、謝亦泰、Ben C. P. Lam…James W. Pennebaker(2012)。中文版「語文探索與字詞計算」詞典之建立。中華心理學刊,54(2),185-201。doi:10.6129/CJP.2012.5402.04
黃嘉彥、王婉菁(2018)。運用文字探勘分析網路財經新聞預測美金外匯之研究。載於國立勤益科技大學管理學院(主編),管理學術研討會(頁792-801)。台灣:國立勤益科技大學管理學院。doi:10.29893/NCUTMAN.201811.0081
蔡欣宜(2014)。探討CSR新聞對台灣公司的股價是否具有增額資訊效果(未出版之碩士論文)。國立成功大學財務金融研究所,臺南市。
盧俊澎(2019)。對個體投資者的評論進行文本挖掘並預測股價漲跌(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學資訊工程學研究所,臺北市。
盧奕叡(2018)。深度學習與情感分析應用於股價預測(未出版之碩士論文)。國立交通大學資訊科學與工程研究所,新竹市。
盧陽正、魏裕珍(2014)。Media Impacts around Earnings Announcement Dates with Consideration of Investor Types and Market Scenarios。財務金融學刊,22(3),73-104。doi:10.6545/jfs.2014.22(3).4
魏如鈺(2020)。新聞情緒對下單積極度之影響響(未出版之碩士論文)。國立臺灣師範大學管理研究所,臺北市。
魏裕珍、盧陽正、許嫣茹(2018)。The Effect of Classified News Sentiment on Trading Behavior。證券市場發展季刊,30(4),91-148。doi: 10.6529/rsfm.201812_30(4).0003
英文部分:
Borovkova, S., & Lammiman, A. (2010). The impact of news sentiment on energy futures returns. Unpublished Working Paper.
Carretta, A., Farina, V., Martelli, D., Fiordelisi, F., & Schwizer, P. (2011). The Impact of Corporate Governance Press News on Stock Market Returns. European Financial Management, 17(1), 100-119. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2010.00548.x
Chang, C.-L., Hsieh, T.-L., & McAleer, M. (2016). How are VIX and Stock Index ETF related? : Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper.
Connolly, R., Stivers, C., & Sun, L. (2005). Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 161-194.doi: 10.1017/S0022109000001782
Cornell, B. (2013). What moves stock prices: Another look. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 32-38.
Cutler, D. M., Poterba, J. M., & Summers, L. H. (1989). What moves stock prices? The Journal of Portfolio Management, 15(3), 4-12. doi: 10.3905/jpm.1989.409212
Daetz, S. L., Hvid, A. K., Martinello, A., & Matin, R. (2019). Seeing through the spin: The effect of news sentiment on firms' stock market performance: Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers.
Derouiche, K., & Frunza, M. (2020). How Did COVID-19 Shaped the Tweets Sentiment Impact upon Stock Prices of Sport Companies? Available at SSRN 3649726.
Dzielinski, Michal (2011). News sensitivity and the cross-section of stock returns. NCCR FINRISK 719, University of Zurich.
Esqueda, O. A., Luo, Y., & Jackson, D. O. (2015). The linkage between the U.S. “fear index” and ADR premiums under non-frictionless stock markets. Journal of Economics and Finance, 39(3), 541-556. doi: 10.1007/s12197-013-9265-z
Gidófalvi, G. (2001). Using News Articles to Predict Stock Price Movements.
Heston, S. L., & Sinha, N. R. (2017). News vs. sentiment: Predicting stock returns from news stories. Financial Analysts Journal, 73(3), 67-83.
Kaur, P., & Singh, J. (2021). Impact of ETF Listing on the Returns Generated by Underlying Stocks: Indian Evidence. Management and Labour Studies, 0258042X21991015. doi: 10.1177/0258042X21991015
Kelly, S., & Ahmad, K. (2018). Estimating the impact of domain-specific news sentiment on financial assets. Knowledge-Based Systems, 150, 116-126.
Kroha, P., Baeza-Yates, R., & Krellner, B. (2006). Text Mining of Business News for Forecasting. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications. https://doi.org/10.1109/DEXA.2006.135
Lee, C.-C., & Chen, M.-P. (2020). Happiness sentiments and the prediction of cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101254. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101254
Lee, C.-C., & Chen, M.-P. (2021). The effects of investor attention and policy uncertainties on cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns. International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 830-852. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.015
Li, X., Xie, H., Chen, L., Wang, J., & Deng, X. (2014). News impact on stock price return via sentiment analysis. Knowledge-Based Systems, 69, 14-23.
Li, Z., Tian, M., Ouyang, G., & Wen, F. (2021). Relationship between investor sentiment and earnings news in high‐and low‐sentiment periods. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2748-2765.
Liu, Y., Bi, J.-W., & Fan, Z.-P. (2017). Ranking products through online reviews: A method based on sentiment analysis technique and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. Information Fusion, 36, 149-161.
McQueen, G., & Roley, V. V. (1993). Stock prices, news, and business conditions. The review of financial studies, 6(3), 683-707.
Mohan, S., Mullapudi, S., Sammeta, S., Vijayvergia, P., & Anastasiu, D. C. (2019). Stock price prediction using news sentiment analysis. Paper presented at the 2019 IEEE Fifth International Conference on Big Data Computing Service and Applications (BigDataService).
Mullen, T., & Collier, N. (2004). Sentiment analysis using support vector machines with diverse information sources. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 2004 conference on empirical methods in natural language processing.
Papakyriakou, P., Sakkas, A., & Taoushianis, Z. (2019). The impact of terrorist attacks in G7 countries on international stock markets and the role of investor sentiment. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 61, 143-160.
Pearce, D. K., & Roley, V. V. (1984). Stock prices and economic news: National bureau of economic research.
Ranco, G., Aleksovski, D., Caldarelli, G., Grčar, M., & Mozetič, I. (2015). The effects of Twitter sentiment on stock price returns. PloS one, 10(9), e0138441.
Reboredo, J. C., & Ugolini, A. (2018). The impact of Twitter sentiment on renewable energy stocks. Energy Economics, 76, 153-169. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.10.014
Sarwar, G., & Khan, W. (2017). The Effect of US Stock Market Uncertainty on Emerging Market Returns. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(8), 1796-1811. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1180592
Sherrill, D. E., Shirley, S. E., & Stark, J. R. (2017). Actively managed mutual funds holding passive investments: What do ETF positions tell us about mutual fund ability? Journal of Banking & Finance, 76, 48-64.doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.11.025
Sherrill, D. E., & Stark, J. R. (2018). ETF liquidation determinants. Journal of Empirical Finance, 48, 357-373.doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2018.07.007
Smales, L. A. (2015). Time-variation in the impact of news sentiment. International Review of Financial Analysis, 37, 40-50.
Tetlock, P. C. (2007). Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market. The Journal of finance, 62(3), 1139-1168.
Yu, L.-C., Lee, L.-H., Hao, S., Wang, J., He, Y., Hu, J., . . . Zhang, X. (2016). Building Chinese affective resources in valence-arousal dimensions. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 2016 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies.
Yu, Y., Duan, W., & Cao, Q. (2013). The impact of social and conventional media on firm equity value: A sentiment analysis approach. Decision support systems, 55(4), 919-926.
Zhang, S., Wei, Z., Wang, Y., & Liao, T. (2018). Sentiment analysis of Chinese micro-blog text based on extended sentiment dictionary. Future Generation Computer Systems, 81, 395-403.
Zhang, W., & Skiena, S. (2010). Trading strategies to exploit blog and news sentiment. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media.