在目前各級政府財政日益緊縮的情況下, 如何將資源做最有效的運用, 是
大家關切的焦點. 台北市雖然一向擁有比其他地方更豐富的財力, 但近年
來亦漸漸露出財政匱乏的景況. 而教育事務花費一向佔據各級政府歲出預
算極大的比例; 再配合憲法對教育預算下限的規定, 使得有效率的運用教
育經費, 較之其他政事別更顯的重要. 在這樣的大環境下, 本文期待能為
台北市教育局擬出一套合理的教育預算方分配模式, 以使教育預算的分配
更趨合理與具效率性.首先, 本文將每年教育預算分為八項, 分別為人事
費、鐘點費、業務費、維護費、旅運費、設備費、工程費及一般經常費.
於每一項費用下一一找出合理的解釋變數, 進行第一次變數汰選的迴歸工
作. 因此第一次共計做了56條迴歸. 接著就第一次迴歸結果, 於每一費用
中,找出最能解釋各年該項經費的變數, 以進行第二次迴歸.利用第二次迴
歸的結果, 計算出各校各項費用實際預算與迴歸估計預算的差異, 然後找
出一組最能解釋各年的預算分配. 因此本文界定四年的累加迴歸式為最適
的預算分配模式.接著更進一步利用最適迴歸式計算每年的離心學校; 目
的在檢視我們的最適預算分配模式是否有疏漏之處, 並做一一修正.最後,
本文對地方政府的最適預算分配模式作下面七點建議:1.改善研究的方向.
在人事費方面, 因為有些資料不能取得, 是以研究中用校齡作為替代. 未
來實際進行預算分配時, 應該將校齡改變為學校教師的年資與學歷. 維護
費的校齡變數, 也應該以學校建築物的建齡或器材的使用年限作為解釋變
數. 另外發展多元教育乃現在努力的方向, 因此特殊班級變數也應該列為
鐘點費的解釋變數之一.2.資本門中的工程費一項, 因為經費的核撥較無
規則可循, 因此建議以積分計點的方式核撥; 並且允許其累積或先行預
支.3.運用零基預算的精神, 廢除預算流用的限制並配合預算內審制度,
讓各校在經費使用上具有彈性; 並且結合責任中心制度, 讓學校預算的執
行考核與預算的核撥產生關連.4.最適預算分配模式是利用過去的預算分
配資料所得到的結果; 而每年的物價會有改變,如果不對公式做物價方面
的調整, 則每年各校所獲得的實預算是在減少. 5.既然累加可以創造預算
分配的型態, 因此若將本文所使用的資料範圍由1993-1996四個年度預算
額, 增加到一個適度的資料範圍, 則必定更能夠解釋各年的預算分配模
式.6.目前預算獎懲辦法應該修正. 獎懲的對象不應該只限於資本支出計
劃而已, 且只針對執行百分率的考核, 可能再次鼓勵浪費. 所以建議考核
應該以全面性預算為範圍, 另外亦不妨考慮成立"校務發展基金", 讓學校
得以保留年度預算結餘.7.本文實際的預算分配模式建構過程, 是可以推
論到其他的教育階段.

How to allocate resources efficiently is the focus issue in the
deflation finance of government. Taipei municipality has the
aboundant finance, but the finacial condition is poorer and
poorer recently. There are two reasons which make analysis the
educational budget more important than others. First,educational
expenditure is the most ratio of every government budget.
Secondly,the 164 article of Constitution was written the lowest
educational expenditure. In this kind situation, we hope to
construct a set of available formulas of budgeting, in order to
make sure the budget is reasonable and efficient.At the first,
we sort the annual budget to 8 subexpenditures. They
arepersonnel expenditure, expenditure per hour, operation
expenditure, keepingwork expenditure, traveling expenditure, and
ordinary expenditure. Try to find out exogenous in every
expenditure and then go on the first regression. The purpose of
first regression is to choose suitable variables to explain
everyexpenditure. After the first regression,and getting those
suitable variables,the second regression is made continuously.
We put data of every Taipei elementary school into the second
regression every year and want to gain a set of available
formulas of budgeting. The outcome we get is from the average
dataof 1993-1996.There are seven recomendations in this
thesis:1.Improving the direction of research. We use the history
of school to be a exogenous of personnel expenditure. However,
the best explained variables areteachers' teaching year and
academic degree. So, the history of school should be substituded
by them. At the same time, the variable of school history in
keeping work expenditure has to be substituded by building or
facilities years.Besides, the factors of special class should be
an explained variable in expenditure per hour in order to
meeting the demand of multiple education.2.The building
expenditure is more abnormal and so we suggest to let
everyschool accumulate or pre-pay it.3.Discard the limiting of
use among expenditures, audit inner school, and apply ZBBS(Zero-
Base Budget System)including the concepts of elasticity and
responsibility.4.Adjust the price index every year when using
the allocative formulas we construct.5.Adding the data years can
explain budget more.6.The object of evaluation is not only the
plan of capital expenditure. The method ought not to just focus
on the percentage of performance. All of thebudget have to be
the objects of evaluation and just care about the percentageof
performance could encourage wasting. We suggest to set a "School
Administration an Development Foundation" to let schools
conserve residualbudget annually.7.The processes of constructing
formulas of allocative budget can be appliedto other kind of
education.
How to allocate resources efficiently is the focus issue in the