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研究生: 陳建瑋
Chen, Jian-Wei
論文名稱: 基於深度學習網路之農產品期貨價格預測模型
Agricultural Futures Price Prediction Model based on Deep Learning Network
指導教授: 方瓊瑤
Fang, Chiung-Yao
葉耀明
Yeh, Yao-Ming
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 資訊工程學系
Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 65
中文關鍵詞: 短期價格預測類神經網絡時間序列分析降噪自編碼器集成學習黃豆期貨農產品期貨
英文關鍵詞: short-term price forecasting, neural network, time series analysis, denoise autoencoder, ensemble learning, soybean futures, agricultural futures
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU201900222
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 在財務金融領域當中,預測金融商品價格一直是個研究者以及產業界所感興趣的主題。其中國際大宗原物料價格變動對於仰賴進出口的台灣經濟體系影響甚鉅,大型企業營運更深受原物料價格起伏所干擾,必須經常性地採取避險手段,將非營運因素的干擾降低。為了解決此問題,本研究蒐集芝加哥期貨商品交易所(Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME)之原物料期貨資料為樣本,在本研究中以黃豆期貨為例,訓練類神經網路模型解決價格預測之問題。

    研究結果顯示,對於充斥雜訊的金融時間序列資料,使用降噪自編碼器可以從期貨價格資料中提取出更具有代表性的潛在特徵。此類特徵有助於提升類神經網路模型價格預測之表現。而透過集成式學習的方法,對於不同的時間區間建立模型並且使模型間共同進行決策,能夠提高方向性預測準確度以及價格預測表現,進一步改進模型效能。

    In the field of finance, forecasting financial instruments prices has always been a topic of interest to researchers and industry. The price changes of commodities have a great impact on Taiwan's economic system, which relies on imports and exports. Large-scale enterprise operations are more deeply disturbed by changes in the prices of raw materials, and it is necessary to regularly adopt hedging measures to reduce interference from nonoperational factors. In order to solve this problem, this study collects the agricultural futures data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a sample, and trained the neural network model to solve the problem of price prediction.

    The research results show that for financial data filled with noise, the use of denoise autoencoder can extract more representative features from the time series of futures price data. Such features help to improve the price prediction of neural network models. which performed. Through the ensemble learning method to establish a model pool to make decisions together, it can improve the prediction accuracy and improve the performance of the model.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 表次 v 圖次 v 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 2 第二節 研究目的 4 第三節 實驗目標 6 第四節 研究範圍與限制 7 第二章 文獻探討 8 第一節 金融價格預測模型與時間序列分析 8 第二節 深度學習價格預測模型 9 第三節 集成學習(Ensemble learning) 12 第三章 研究方法與步驟 16 第一節 資料前處理 16 使用資料集劃分 17 樣本與參考時間長度 19 標籤:模型學習目標 21 Z分數標準化 21 缺失值處理 22 第二節 技術指標特徵 23 第三節 降噪自編碼器 27 第四章 價格預測網路模型 30 第一節 長短期記憶遞歸神經網絡 30 第二節 價格預測模型架構 32 第三節 模型輸出預測結果 33 第四節 價格預測模型流程圖 33 第五節 集成學習 35 Bagging演算法 35 Bagging演算法實驗設計 36 偏差(Bias)與方差(Variance) 38 第五章 實驗環境設定 42 第一節 實驗資料庫說明 42 第二節 實驗的評估方式 45 第六章 研究結果與分析 46 第一節 模型訓練 48 第二節 價格預測表現 49 第七章 結論 57 第一節 結論 57 第二節 未來工作 59 參考文獻 61

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