過去對東亞地區冬季與聖嬰現象(El Niño)的關係的研究中多半針對東亞地區平均降水量與大尺度環流的相關性分析，鮮少探討降水發生頻率與降水強度；然而瞬間的豪大雨有機會造成重大災情，因此在降水的研究上已不能僅局限於總降水量或平均降水量，了解降水強度與降水發生頻率的變化有助於我們提早應變可能發生的災害。
本文主要研究1998-2012年聖嬰事件之冬季期間，位於東亞地區的東北西南走向之正降水距平區的降水特性(降水發生頻率、降水強度)，並利用水氣收支方程檢驗造成降水特性改變的物理機制。在降水特性的部分，觀測資料TRMM與再分析資料CFSR皆一致地顯示，聖嬰事件發生時降水頻率之相對變化率在強降水事件(≥10 mm/hr)增加，弱降水事件(0-1 mm/hr)則減少；而降水強度方面，所有有效降水事件之降水強度皆增強，尤其是強降水(第91至第100百分位數)與極端降水(第100百分位數)事件。
影響降水特性的主要因素有水氣(大氣熱力過程)與垂直運動(大氣動力過程)，為了進一步瞭解造成降水特性改變的物理機制，我們利用水氣收支方程檢驗造成其變化的原因。結果顯示，對強降水事件之降水頻率而言，垂直運動(動力作用)的影響相較於水氣(熱力作用)較顯著；而在降水強度的部分，強降水與極端降水事件的變化主要來自水氣垂直傳輸的貢獻，水氣水平傳輸則為次要水氣貢獻，接著再進一步分析發現水氣垂直傳輸的異常輻合主要是受到垂直速度改變(動力分量)造成的影響。因此對強降水與極端降水事件而言，不論是降水頻率或降水強度，主要皆是受到上升運動的發生次數增加以及上升運動增強造成的結果；而弱降水事件則應屬於非對流系統影響，可能與層狀降水較有關係。

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