研究生: |
周寬程 Chou, Kuan-Cheng |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
初探美中貿易赤字 The preliminary study of trade balance between the United States and China |
指導教授: |
印永翔
Ying, Yung-Hsiang |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
高階經理人企業管理碩士在職專班(EMBA) Executive Master of Business Administration |
論文出版年: | 2020 |
畢業學年度: | 108 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 67 |
中文關鍵詞: | 美中貿易 、經常帳 、貿易帳 、匯率 、購買力平價 、貨幣需求方程式 |
英文關鍵詞: | United States–China trade, current account, balance of trade, exchange rate, purchasing power parity, money demand function |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202000696 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:106 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
2020年1月15日,美國總統川普與中國國務院副總理劉鶴簽署了《美國和中國經濟貿易協議》。此簽訂為雙方貿易戰開打二年以來,有共識達成第一階段的協議,暫時停止二年以來相互制裁與報復行為。從協議內容得知,美中雙方並不是全面性的談判結果所簽的協議,比較像是小範圍的採購協議。未來是否會出現第二次、第三次貿易協議等,值得觀察。
中國自從2001年加入WTO後,近20年來國家內部及對外經貿往來的任何經濟數據皆突飛猛進。從過往經驗得知,上古歷史著名的「伯羅奔尼撒戰爭」中,興起中的斯巴達挑戰既有雅典在地中海的權力,恰如,今天興起的中國挑戰美國在國際貿易霸權地位,此時美國為了鞏固與保護自己國家與國家既有利益時,勢必需要適當發起壓制的策略,不惜發生戰爭或引發一些摩擦,今日的美中貿易大戰發生也就不足為奇。
美中長期貿易逆差下,在美國總統川普上任後,即對中國進行貿易上的制裁,此次美中貿易戰由美國發起,第一階段的協議也由美國同意邀請中國簽屬,本文再次針對美中貿易赤字原因進行深入探討,綜合研究結果如下:
1.美中長期貿易逆差與美國本身經常帳長期赤字有絕對的關聯性,決定經常帳內最大赤字便是貿易帳,貿易帳中又以貨物貿易解釋貿易變化最為適當,貿易帳絕對可以解釋為經常帳的大縮影,美國經常帳長期惡化,絕對是扮演美中貿易赤字長期以來,美國本身內部最重要的因素之一。
2.中國從2001年加入WTO後,讓中國正式進入自由貿易國家與世界各國經貿往來更加密切,中國出口貿易量逐年升高2017年貿易總額已成為世界第一,美中貿易也隱藏世界第一大經濟體與第二大經濟體之競爭關係。
3.經由實證結果得知,匯率扮演國家貿易重要因素,美中貿易長期失衡與二國匯率有絕對相關聯性,當人民幣貶值時,美中貿易赤字呈現增加趨勢,中國匯率走勢與貨幣需求理論吻合,但無法藉由單一匯率變數來解釋美中貿易赤字全貌。
On January 15, 2020, President of the United States, Donald Trump, and Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China, Liu He, signed a “Phase One” trade agreement. This signing represents a consensus on a first-phase agreement and temporarily suspends the mutual sanctions imposed and retaliatory actions taken during the 2 years since the trade war began. The agreement states that it is not the result of comprehensive negotiations but is instead similar to a small-scale procurement agreement. Whether second- and third-phase trade agreements are to be formulated in the future is worth observing.
Since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, the data on its internal economic conditions and overseas trade have all indicated considerable improvements. The data suggest China is a rising power, and, similar to how Sparta challenged Athens for power in the Mediterranean during the Peloponnesian War, China presents a challenge to the United States’ (US) hegemonic position in international trade. Thus, to consolidate and protect its interests, it was inevitable that the US would engage in strategy of repression, even at the cost of conflicts or trade war. This perspective provides a logical explanation of the trade war between the nations.
In response to the long-term US–China trade deficit, President Trump imposed trade sanctions on China immediately after taking office. Thus, the US–China trade war was initiated by the US, and the US also initiated the first phase of the trade agreement negotiations. This study conducts an in-depth examination of the factors for the US–China trade deficit. The comprehensive research results are as follows:
1.The long-term US–China trade deficit has a direct association with the long-term deficit in the US current account, whose deficit is dominated by the balance of trade. Variations in the balance of trade are best explained by the trade of goods, and the balance of trade can be seen as a miniature representation of the current account. The long-term deficit of the US current account is thus one of the most crucial internal factors in the US–China trade deficit.
2.Since the accession of China to the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has officially become a free trade country and actively participated in international trade. China’s export trade volume has increased over the years, and its total trade volume was first in the world in 2017. The US–China trade war also reflects the competitive relationship between the largest and second largest economies.
3.According to the empirical results, exchange rate plays a vital role in trade. The long-term US–China trade imbalance is directly related to the exchange rates of both countries. When the RMB depreciates, the US–China trade deficit exhibits an increasing trend. The trend of China’s exchange rate is consistent with what is predicted by the theory of demand for money, but the exchange rate variable alone is insufficient to explain the whole picture of the US–China trade deficit.
中文參考文獻
毛慶生(2014),《總體經濟學古典新論(一)》,雙葉書廊。
王增智(2010),《購買力平價再檢測–連續追蹤選擇法的應用》,暨南大學經濟學系碩士論文。
吳致寧(1995),〈台灣長期購買力平價說之實證研究〉,《開放總體經濟論文集》, 頁 64-87。
吳景梅(2003),《我國匯率與總體經濟指標關係之實證研究》,世新大學經濟學系碩士論文。
吳佩橙(2009),《新台幣與美元購買力平價之檢定》,中正大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
李宜芳(2005),《長期購買力平價再探討–高檢力單根檢定量的應用》,暨南大學經濟學系碩士論文。
林晉仰(2011),《購買力平價之謎與 Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson 效應:消費者物價指數與生產者物價指數之實證研究》,清華大學經濟學系碩士論文。
胡欣瑜(2015),《購買力平價再探討–共變量傅立葉單根檢定之應用》,暨南大學經濟學系碩士論文。
張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏(2016),《經濟學理論與實際》,第七版.下冊, 翰蘆圖書。
陳翊鏵(2001),《台灣利率、匯率互動之實證研究》,東華大學國際經濟研究所碩士論文。
陳美源、陳禮潭(2003),〈購買力平價說與結構性變動-美∕台實質匯率之實證研究〉,《台灣經濟預測與政策》,第 34 期,頁 93-112。
黃瀚霆(2013),《考慮一般化自我迴歸條件異質變異之共整合分析:台灣及美國之長期購買力平價理論實證》,中山大學經濟學系碩士論文。
楊傑宇(2011),《金磚五國的購買力平價–非線性傅立葉函數之定態檢定》,逢甲大學經濟學系碩士論文。
劉明貞(2012),《長期購買力平價說實證分析–以亞洲地區國家為例》,中山大學經濟學系碩士論文。
鄭瑞木(2011),《台灣與主要貿易國的購買力平價:非線性傅立業函數的定態檢定》,逢甲大學經濟學系碩士論文。
賴美穎和劉宗欣(2016),〈購買力平價、Balassa-Samuelson 效果與結構性變動︰臺灣與美國、日本實質匯率的實證〉,《經濟研究》(Taipei Economic Inquiry),第52期,頁207-251。
王義中(2011),人民幣内外均衡匯率:1982-2010年,浙江大學經濟學院,<數量經濟技術經濟研究> (京)2009年5期第68~80頁。
吳心琪、官德星(2010),國際貨幣制度演變之研究,國立臺北大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
徐成聰、劉崇偉(2007),人民幣均衡匯率與匯率失调的實證研究,西南財經大學國際貿易學碩士論文。
趙志文、童振源(2008),國際政治因素對於匯率體制與政策的影響:以人民幣為例,國立政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所博士論文
趙蓓琪、顏厚棟(2011),資本移動、外匯干預與匯率失衡,逢甲大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
蕭美珠(1983),《購買力–台灣之實證研究》,政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
英文參考文獻
Amano, R. A. and Norden, S. (1998), “Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 17, pp. 299-316.
Adler, Michael and Lehmann, Bruce (1983), “Deviation from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run,” Journal of Finance, 38, pp. 1471-1487.
Amara, J. and Papell, D. (2006), “Testing for Purchasing Power Parity Using Stationary Covariates,” Applied Financial Economics, 16, pp. 29-39.
Bown, Chad P. 2004. “How different are safeguards from antidumping? Evidence from U.S. trade policies toward steel,” Brandeis University. Manuscript. July.
Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D. and Perron, P. (2009), “ GLS-based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Tructural Breaks under the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses,”
Econometric Theory, pp. 1754-1792.
Clausing Kimberly (2017), “The Gops final tax bill has four fatal flaws,” The Hill Retrieved 14 August 2019.
Corbae, D. and Ouliaris, S. (1988), “Co-Integration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 70, pp. 508-511.
Cheung, Yin-Wong, Menzie Chinn, Menzie, and Eiji Fujii (2010), “China’s Current Account and Exchange Rate,” U.Chicago Press for NBER pp. 231-271.
Coudert, V., & Couharde, C (2005),” Real equilibrium exchange rate in China. Paris: Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et. D’Informations Internationales.,” Working Paper No. 2005-1. January.
Crowley Meredith. 2005.“The U.S. trade deficit: made in China? Economic Perspectives, issue Q IV:2-18
Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing,” Econometrica, 55, pp. 251-276.
Elliott, G. and Pesavento, E. (2004), “Higher Power Tests for Bilateral Failures of PPP after 1973,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38, pp. 1405-1430.
Edison, H. J. (1985), “Purchasing Power Parity: A Quantitative Reassessment of the 1920s Experience,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, pp. 361-372.
Edison, H. J. and Klovland, J. T. (1987), “A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom,” Journal of Apply Economics, 2, pp. 309-333.
Economist (2010), “The Big Mac index: Exchanging blows; Our Big Mac index shows
the Chinese yuan is still undervalued,” Economist, Mar 17th.
Frenkel, J. A. (1976), “A monetary approach to the exchange rate. ” Scandi-navian J. Econ. 78, no.2,200-224.
Frenkel, J. A. (1981), “The Collapse of Purchasing Power Parities During the 1970s,”
European Economic Review, 16, pp. 145-65.
Frankel, J. A. (1986), “International Capital Mobility and Crowding out in the US Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or Goods Markets?” in Hafer, R. W. (ed.), How Open Is the US Economy? Lexington: Lexington Book.
Frankel, J. A. and Rose, A. K. (1996), “A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion within and between Rconomies,” Journal of International Economics, 40, pp. 209-224.
Fleissig, A. and Strauss, J. (2000), “Panel Unit Root Tests of Purchasing Power Parity for Price Indices,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, pp. 489-506.
Granger, C. and Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious regressions in economics,” Journal of
Econometrics, 2, pp. 111-120.
Goldstein, Morris and Nicholas Lardy (2009), “The Future of China’s Exchange Rate Policy,” Peterson Institute for International Economics July,Policy Analyses in International Economics 87.
Craig, Gary. (1981), “A Monetary Approach to the Balance of Trade,” American Economic Review, 71(3): 460-466.
Hakkio, C. C. (1984), “A Re-examination of Purchasing Power Parity (A Multi-Country and Multi-Period Study),” Jourmal of International Economics, 17, pp. 265-277.
Hansen, B. E. (1995), “Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power,” Econometric Theory, 11, pp. 1148-1171.
Kouparitsas, Michael, 2005, “Is the U.S. current account sustainable?,” Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 215, June.
Kagan Donald (2003)“The Peloponnesian War. ” New York: Viking Press.
Lothian, J. R. (1997), “Multi-country Evidence on the Behavior of Purchasing Power Parity,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, pp. 19-35.
Lothian, J. R. and Taylor, M. (1996), “Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries,” Journal of Political Economy, 104, pp. 488-510.
Meese, R. A. and Rogoff, K. (1988), “Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period,” Journal of Finance, 43, pp. 933-948.
Mundell, R. A. (1963), “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate,” Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29, November 1963, pp. 475-485.
Meese, R. A. and Singleton, K. J. (1982), “On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates,” Journal of Finance, 37, pp. 1029-1035.
Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy (2007), “China’s Exchange Rate Policy: An Overview of Some Key Issues,” China’s Exchange Rate Policy Peterson Institute for International Economics 19 Oct 2007
Moore, Michael O.1996. “The rise and fall of Big Steel’s influence on U.S. trade policy,” in The Politi-cal Economy of Trade Protection, Anne O. Krueger (ed.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Mark, N. C. (1995),”Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability”, American Economic Review, 85, pp. 201–18.
Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001), “Lag Length Selection and the construction of Unit Root
Tests with Good Size and Power,” Econometrica, 69, pp. 1519-1554.
Oh, K. Y. (1996), “Purchasing Power Parity and the Unit Root Tests Using Panel Data,”
Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, pp. 405-418.
O'Connell, P. G. J. (1998), “The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity,” Journal of International Economics, 44, pp. 1-19.
Papell, D. ans Theodoridis, H. (1998), “Increasing Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity over the Current Float,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 17, pp. 41-50.
Papell, D. (1997), “Searching for Stationarity: Purchasing Power Parity under the Recent Float,” Journal of International Economics, 43, pp. 313-332.
Prusa, Thomas. (2001), “On the spread and impact of antidumping,” Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 34, No. 3, August, pp. 591–611.
Roubini, Nouriel, and Brad Setser, (2004), “The U.S. as a net debtor: The sustainability of the U.S. external imbalances,” New York University, Stern School of Business, manuscript.
Roll, Richard (1979), “Violations of Purchasing Power Parity and their Implications for Efficient International Commodity Markets,” in: Marshall Sarnat and Giorgio Szego, eds., International Finance and Trade, pp. 133-176.
Reisen, Helmut (2009), “On the Renminbi and Economic Convergence,” Vox, December 17.
Subramanian, Arvind (2010), “New PPP-Based Estimates of Renminbi Undervaluation and Policy Implications,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, April Policy Brief PB10-18.
Taylor, M. and Sarno, L. (1998), “The Behaviour of Real Exchanges during the
Post-bretton Woods Period,” Journal of International Economics, 46, pp. 281-312.
Wu, Y. (1996), “Are Real Exchange Rates Nonstationary? Evidence from a Panel-Data
Test,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28, pp. 54-63.
Wu, J. L. and Wu, S. (2001), “Are Purchasing Power Parity Overvalued,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33, pp. 804-812.
William R. Cline (2010), “Renminbi Undervaluation, China’s Surplus, and the US Trade Deficit” Peterson Institute for International Economics, PB10-20.
William R. Cline and John Williamson (2007),” Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi: Is There a Consensus and, If Not, Why Not?” ,Peterson Institute for International Economics
Wang, Tao (2004), “Exchange Rate Dynamics,” in Eswar Prasad (editor), China’s Growth and Integration into the World Economy, Occasional Paper No. 232 (Washington, D.C. IMF), pp. 21-28.
William R. Cline and John Williamson (2010), “Notes on Equilibrium Exchange Rates: January 2010,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policy Brief PB10-2 January .
Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the
Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, pp. 251-270.
網路資源參考
1.BBC 中文網,網址:http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/
2.MBA 智庫,網址:http://www.mbalib.com/
3.人民網,網址:http://www.people.com.cn/
4.大紀元新聞網,網址:http://www.epochtimes.com/
5.中央日報網路報,網址:http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews_site/
6.中時電子報,網址:http://news.chinatimes.com/
7.中國知識資源總庫,網址:http://cnki50.csis.com.tw/kns50/
8.中國評論新聞,網址:http://www.chinareviewnews.com/
9.中國證券報,證券網,網址:http://www.cs.com.cn/
10.中華人民共和國國家外匯管理局,網址:http://www.safe.gov.cn/
11.中華人民共和國國家統計局,網址:http://www.stats.gov.cn/
12.中華經濟研究院,網址:http://www.cier.edu.tw/
13.台灣經濟研究院,網址:http://www.tier.org.tw/
14.自由時報電子報,網址:http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/index.htm
15.旺 e 報,網址:http://www.want-daily.com/
16.海峽資訊網,網址:http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/index.html
17.華爾街日報中文網,網址:http://cn.wsj.com/big5/index.asp
18.新華網,網址:http://www.xinhuanet.com/
19.經濟日報,網址:http://edn.gmg.tw/
20.經濟觀察網,網址:http://www.eeo.com.cn/
21.萬芳數據知識資源服務平台,網址:http://g.wanfangdata.com.hk/
22.鉅亨網,網址:http://www.cnyes.com/
23.維基百科,網址:http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki
24.聯合新聞網,網址:http://udn.com/NEWS/main.html