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研究生: 鄭竣元
Zheng, Jun-Yuan
論文名稱: 艾利颱風 (2016) 遠距降水之原因探討
A Numerical Study of Distant Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Aere (2016)
指導教授: 簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching
口試委員: 王重傑
Wang, Chung-Chieh
周昆炫
Chou, Kun-Hsuan
簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching
口試日期: 2023/07/20
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 112
中文關鍵詞: 颱風遠距降水ETKF秋季颱風地形效應
研究方法: 次級資料分析個案研究法
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202301699
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 本文針對2016年10月6日至9日受艾利颱風與綜觀環境場影響,在臺灣東半部發生之強降雨事件進行分析。使用WRF數值模式進行模擬,透過ETKF資料同化產生之64個系集成員進行降雨機制的探討。
    在風場強度與累積降雨的相關係數分析中,發現各系集成員之降雨模擬對於風場強度有很高的敏感度。透過將系集成員分成強風組 (strong wind group, SW) 和弱風組 (weak wind group, WW) 進行分析發現兩組降雨差異主要出現在臺灣東南部的區域,SW相比WW在該區有較接近觀測之降雨量,且透過風場以及水氣場的比較後發現颱風環流的發展是造成該雨區降雨的關鍵因素。而整起降雨事件根據主導的天氣系統不同,可以大致以7日0600 UTC為劃分。前期降雨主要受綜觀環境場的低壓環流影響,後期則是由艾利颱風的外圍環流主導。
    在颱風環流敏感度實驗中,透過海溫調降使成員中整體風場條件最好的m7之颱風環流減弱。結果顯示原本颱風環流與綜觀環境場之低壓環流的合流因此減弱,分析後發現此合流是致使後續臺灣東南部降雨的關鍵因素。在水氣敏感度實驗中則是調整m7初始相對濕度來改善事件前期花蓮附近之區域降雨,結果發現降雨肇因為低壓環流勢力北上後,將水氣帶至臺灣東部,低層東南風受地形抬升形成降雨。

    摘要 i 目錄 ii 圖表目錄 v 第一章、前言 1 第二章、個案與觀測分析 6 2-1艾利颱風個案介紹 6 2-2太平洋高壓異常值分析 7 2-3降雨分析 8 2-4小結 9 第三章、資料與研究方法 11 3-1資料來源 11 3-2模式設定 11 第四章、艾利颱風與遠距降水之模擬結果 14 4-1模擬結果與觀測比較 14 4-1-1綜觀環境場 14 4-1-2艾利颱風路徑與強度 15 4-2系集模式降雨分析 17 4-3風場強度與降雨相關性分析 19 4-4強風組 (SW) 與弱風組 (WW) 21 4-4-1降雨校驗分析 22 4-4-2降雨差異分析 24 4-4-3風場環境與水氣傳輸分析 26 4-4-4剖面分析 30 4-4-5氣流軌跡分析 33 4-5小結 36 第五章、敏感度實驗 37 5-1 颱風環流敏感度實驗 (weak TC run, WTC) 37 5-1-1實驗設計 37 5-1-2降雨差異分析 38 5-1-3風場環境與水氣傳輸分析 39 5-1-4剖面分析 41 5-1-5小結 42 5-2水氣敏感度實驗 (humidity run, HM) 43 5-2-1實驗設計 43 5-2-2降雨差異分析 44 5-2-3風場環境與水氣傳輸分析 45 5-2-4剖面分析 47 5-2-5小結 49 第六章、結論 50 參考文獻 53 附圖 57

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