研究生: |
程美靜 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
大氣海洋耦合模式所模擬的東亞地區氣候變遷-氣溫和降水 |
指導教授: | 陳正達 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2000 |
畢業學年度: | 88 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 99 |
中文關鍵詞: | 氣候變遷 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:147 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
人類活動一直是影響環境變化的重要因子,特別是在工業革命之後,大量排放具溫室效應的二氧化碳和其它氣體,研究會對大氣圈造成什麼樣的影響,是值得深入探討的問題,也已經有許多相關的研究,雖然結果究竟如何還是有爭議性,特別是區域氣候變遷方面的應用。
本文利用目前世界各氣候中心所發展出大氣海洋耦合模式,藉由利用這些模式在考慮溫室氣體增加和進一步考慮硫酸根氣溶膠影響的情況下,所進行溫室氣體變化實驗和溫室氣體與氣溶膠變化實驗的模擬結果,來推估東亞地區未來氣候變遷的情況。
利用和觀測資料的比對,我們可以評估這些大氣海洋耦合模式在模擬目前氣候上的可信度。由研究分析顯示,在東亞地區對現代氣候模擬較好的模式是澳洲科學和工業研究組織(CSIRO)和英國哈德里氣候預測和研究中心(HCCPR)發展的大氣海洋耦合模式。
而氣候變遷的推估方面,因為各模式採用的氣體濃度增加率不盡相同,故我們以各模式二氧化碳濃度變為1.9倍(以1961-90年的二氧化碳平均濃度當成1倍二氧化碳濃度)時的前後30年平均值,減去1倍二氧化碳濃度時的氣候值來代表氣候變遷的變化量。
而這些模式在東亞地區(70-140°E,15-60°N)模擬的氣候變遷,降水方面,年平均變化量為-0.19到0.33mm/day不等,平均為0.13mm/day,夏季降水變化量推估的範圍為-0.17到0.58mm/day之間,平均為0.29mm/day,冬雨變遷的推估值則介於-0.16和0.16mm/day之間,平均為0.04mm/day。近地面溫度變遷的模擬方面,年平均變化量的範圍,由1.46到4.69℃,平均為2.92℃,夏季溫度的變化量是介於1.44和3.96℃之間,平均則為2.59℃,冬季溫度變化量平均是3.29℃,範圍是2.04到5.98℃。大致而言,這些模式認為雨量的變遷,夏季增加的幅度比冬季來的大,而近地面溫度則是冬季的增溫幅度大於夏季。
另外氣候變遷的平均空間分佈狀況,大體而言,降水的差異性較溫度大,緯度較高的區域有降水增多的情形,而近地面空氣溫度則是有由東南向西北增暖效應逐漸增強的情況,但各模式增強的幅度有所不同。
雖然上述各模式對氣候變遷的模擬結果並不一致,但至少這些模式的模擬結果可以提供我們一個未來氣候變遷情況的參考範圍,以提供其他相關領域做進一步的研究之用。
DKRZ, 1993: The ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model.
Techn. Rep. No. 6, DKRZ, Bundestr. 55, Hamburg. Germany.
Emori, S., T. Nozawa, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Numaguti, M. Kimoto and T.
Nakajima, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments
of future climate change with an explicit representation of
sulfate aerosol scattering. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 77,
1299-1307. (in press)
Flato, G. M., G.J. Boer, W.G. Lee, N.A. McFarlane, D. Ramsden, M.C.
Reader and A.J. Weaver, 1997: The Canadian Centre for Climate
Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model and its Climate,
in manuscript.
Gates, W. L., A. Henderson-Sellers, G. J. Boer, C. K. Folland, A.
Kitoh, B. J. McAvaney, F. Semazzi, N. Smith, A. J. Weaver
and Q.-C. Zeng, 1996: Climate Models – Evaluation. In:
Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change., J. T.
Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A.
Kattenberg and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK, 229-284.
Giorgi, F., and L. Mearns, 1991: Approaches to the simulation of
regional climate change: A review. J. Geophys. Res., 29,
191-216.
Gordon, H. B. and S. P. O'Farrell, 1997: Transient climate change
in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 125, 875- 907.
Grotch, S. L., and M. C. McCracken, 1991: The use of general
circulation models to predict regional climate change. J.
Climate, 4, 286-303.
Huffman,G.J., R.F. Adle, P. Arkin, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, Gruber,
J. Janowiak, A. McNab, B. Rudolf, and U. Schneider, 1997:
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)
combined precipitation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc.,78, 5-20.
IPCC, 1996: Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change, J.
T. Houghton, L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris,
A. Kattenberg and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University
Press ,Cambridge, UK, 572pp.
Jones, P. D., 1994: Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations:
A Reanalysis and an update to 1993, J. Climate, 7,
pp1794-1804.
Johns, T.C., 1996: A description of the Second Hadley Centre Coupled
Model (HADCM2). Climate Research Techn. 71, Meteorological
Office, Bracknell, UK, 19.
Kalnay and coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471. Meehl, J.F.B. Kattenberg, A.,
F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G.A. Mitchell, R.J. Stouffer, T.
Tokioka, A.J. Weaver and T.M.L. Wigley, 1996: Climate Models –
Projections of Future Climate Change, In: Climate Change
1995. The Science of Climate Change., J.T. Houghton, L.G.
Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg and K.
Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
285-357.
Kattenberg, A., F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G. A. Meehl, J. F. B. Mitchell,
R. J. Stouffer, T. Tokioka, A. J. Weaver, and T. M. L. Wigley,
1996: Climate Models – projections of future climate. In "
Climate Change 1995 " , Eds. J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander,
N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 289-357.
Lal, M.,P. H. Whetton, A. B. Pittock and B. Chakraborty, 1998: The
Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change over the Indian
Subcontinent as Projected by General Circulation Model
Experiments. TAO, 9, 673-690.
Maier-Reimer, E., and U. Mikolajewicz and K. Hasselmann, 1993: Mean
circulation of the Hamburg LSG OGCM and its sensitivity of
the thermohaline surface forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 23,
731-757.
Manabe S. and R. J. Stouffer, 1994: Multiple- Century Response of
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to an Increase of Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide. Journal of Climate, 7, 5-23.
Mitchell J.F.B., S. Manabe, V. Meleshko and T. Tokioka, 1990:
Equilibrium Climate Change – and its Implications for the
Future. In: Climate Change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment.,
J. F. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins and J. J. Ephraums, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, 131-172.
New, M.G., M. Hulme and P.D. Jones, in press: Representing 20th
century space-time climate variability. I: Development of a
1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate.
Roeckner, E., J.M. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Christoph and I.
Kirchner, 1996: ENSO variability and atmospheric response in
a global coupled Atmosphere - ocean GCM. Climate Dynamics,
12, 737-754.
Santer B. D., W. Bruggemann, U. Cubash, K. Hasselmann, E. Maier-
Reimer and U. Mikolajewicz, 1994: Signal-to-noise analysis
of time- dependent greenhouse warming experiments. Part 1:
Pattern analysis. Climate Dynamics, 9, 267-285.
von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and U. Cubasch, 1993: Downscaling of
global climate change estimates to regional scales: an
application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. Journal of
Climate, 6, 1161-1171.
Washington,W.M. and G.A. Meehl, 1993: Greenhouse sensitivity
experiments with penetrative cumulus convection and tropical
cirrus albedo effects. Clim. Dyn., 8, 211-223.
Washington,W.M., G.A. Meehl, L. VerPlank and T. Bettge, 1994: A world
ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution
intercomparison and the role diagnostic forcing. Clim. Dyn.,
9, 321- 344.
Wigley, T. M. L., P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, and G. Smith, 1990:
Obtaining subgrid scale information from coarse-resolution
general circulation model output. J. Geophys. Res., 95,
1943-1953.