研究生: |
陳淑婉 Chen, Shu-Wan |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
最佳ETF投資組合市場風險值模型分析-以投資人屬性為基準 The Analysis of the best ETF portfolio market risk value model – A case study of investor attributes |
指導教授: |
賴慧文
Lai, Whuei-Wen |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
高階經理人企業管理碩士在職專班(EMBA) Executive Master of Business Administration |
論文出版年: | 2019 |
畢業學年度: | 107 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 67 |
中文關鍵詞: | 最佳ETF投資組合 、平均數-變異數投資組合模型 、效率前緣 、投資人屬性分類 |
英文關鍵詞: | Optimal ETF Portfolio, Mean-Variance Portfolio Model, Efficiency Frontier, Investor Risk Averse Classification |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU201900044 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:166 下載:1 |
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著名財務學者芝加哥大學教授Fama在1970年代,提出了著名的效率市場假說(efficient marke thypothesis, EMH)。其定義如下,市場價格在有效率的資本市場中,已經反映出所有資訊。然而,自1980 年代起,許多專家學者根據此理論與實證不符之事實,提出了許多質疑,並企圖找出更適切、可以解釋近代金融現象的理論。
基於上述研究背景,本研究擬從行為財務學的理論基礎及應用範園,分析個別投資人的行為特徵,配合資產配置理論。根據不同的投資偏好,為個別投資人或代理操作經理人找出最佳ETF投資組合。將以2008 年1月至2019年2月為研究期間,採用台灣ETF,共134個月份之資料作為研究樣本。由於投資人偏好即屬性眾多,為求簡化,在資產配置過程中將投資人考量的因素分成五種類型加以探討,其他屬性和需求則可據此架構加以延伸。
綜合過去文獻之方法,本研究將試圖分類投資人之風險趨避程度,並了解不同投資商品的報酬率與風險關係,建構投資組合。本研究採用Markowitz (1952) 所提出的平均數-變異數投資組合模式,建構效率前緣。再依照不同風險趨避係數,配置不同比重之風險性較低的ETF及風險性較高的ETF,以分析投資人屬性之最適資產配置,並模擬投資情形。
由本研究整理的結果可知:不同的投資人風險趨避係數會影響投資的策略,當投資人為風險愛好者,表示承受風險的能力較高,喜歡獲利潛力高的投資機會,不在乎風險承受。另外,本研究採用MV模型建構效率前緣,分析不同屬性投資人,提供簡易的方法供投資者未來投資理財規劃參考。
行為財務學將不同投資人的行為做屬性分類,強調應按照不同屬性,建立不同投資結構;而代理操作強調的是為客戶量身訂做投資組合,故可依行為財務學概念,為每個人建立最佳投資組合,本研究擬出投資人分類問卷,使得投資人可以依問卷結果,知道其屬性,並做出適切的ETF投資。
Fama, a well-known financial scholar at the University of Chicago, proposed the famous efficient marke thypothesis (EMH) in the 1970s. It is defined as follows. Market prices have already reflected all information in an efficient capital market. However, since the 1980s, many experts and scholars have raised many questions in view of the inconsistency between this theory and the empirical, and attempted to find a more appropriate theory that can explain modern financial phenomena.
Based on the above research background, this study intends to analyze the behavioral characteristics of individual investors from the theoretical basis and application of behavioral finance, and incorporate behavioral factors with the theory of asset allocation. This study will find the suitable ETF portfolio for individual investors or valet operations managers in according with different investment preferences. Taiwan ETF will be used as the research sample for a total of 134 months over the period from January 2008 to February 2019. Since investors have a lot of attributes, for the sake of simplicity, the investor’s risk averse attitude in the asset allocation process is considered, and other attributes and requirements can be extended according to this structure.
Based on previous literature, this study will attempt to classify the risk aversion of investors and understand the relationship between the rate of return and risk of different investment commodities and construct a portfolio. This study uses the mean-variance portfolio model proposed by Markowitz (1952) to construct the efficiency frontier. In particular, ETFs with different risk levels are configured to analyze the optimal asset allocations of investors with different levels of risk aversion and I simulate the investment senarios. This study documents that investors have higher ability to withstand risks when they are risk enthusiasts, they have higher ability to withstand risks, and they prefer investment opportunities with high profit potentials. The study provides an easy method for investors to invest in future financial planning.
Behavioral finance classifies the behaviors of different investors, emphasizing the promise to establish different investment structures according to different attributes. The agent operation emphasizes tailor-made investment portfolio for customers, so it can be based on the concept of behavioral finance. To establish the best investment portfolio, this study proposes an investor classification questionnaire that allows investors to know their risk averse attributes and make appropriate ETF investments.
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