研究生: |
錢稚偉 Chien, Chih-Wei |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
雲解析模式對侵臺颱風八天定量降水預報技術之評估與特性分析 Evaluation and Characteristics of Eight-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Skill for Typhoons Affecting Taiwan by The CReSS Model |
指導教授: |
王重傑
Wang, Chung-Chieh |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2018 |
畢業學年度: | 106 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 133 |
中文關鍵詞: | 雲解析模式 、侵臺颱風 、8天定量降水預報技術 、FSS 、西南氣流 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DES.015.2018.B07 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:124 下載:32 |
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本研究為了探討雲解析模式對侵臺颱風期間之8天定量降水預報技術。過去研究顯示,雲解析模式3天預報已有相當優異的預報表現,以及8天預報評估2012~2013年間6個侵臺颱風,發現在3天以上已具備降水預報技術,故評估2012~2016年所有侵臺颱風,以獲得更加完整的8天定量降水預報技術。
8天預報以不同初始時間對侵臺颱風之每24小時個案,並使用3種技術得分(TS、BS及FSS),評估結果得知,FSS與TS之趨勢一致,即「當累積雨量值愈高且雨區規模愈大時,定量降水預報技術愈佳」。在3天內的比較,整體而言,8天(大區域)與3天(小區域)預報皆為相當優秀之預報技術。但第1天預報在門檻值750毫米處,大區域預報有更優於小區域預報之TS得分,顯示在少數個案中,放大預報區域可能有利於模式在極端降水事件的表現。
8天預報在3天以上第4~8天的預報,在2012~2016年之大豪雨個案,平均達6.1天前具預報技術;未能在3天前做出好的降水預報的個案中,其路徑偏差主要原因為副熱帶高壓的不確定性,全球模式預報的誤差以及雲解析模式預報路徑有右偏的現象,進而造成降水預報技術的得分偏低。
本文以不同條件做路徑誤差與降水分布型態(FSS)的分類,整體而言,呈現很好的負相關,路徑誤差愈小,降水分布型態愈好。與西南氣流交互作用的颱風情境下,降水主因為西南氣流受到地形舉升作用所造成的,而模式若能有效預報到其情境的變化,那麼即便路徑誤差偏大,但降雨預報仍然可能有很高的準確度與實用性。在7級暴風半徑的分類,暴風半徑愈大、雨區亦愈大、FSS得分也愈高。綜上所述,本研究所歸類的颱風預報特性,可以提供有效的參考資訊,給予預報員更加充足的觀念,以防範於未然。
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