研究生: |
林庭州 Lin, Ting-Zhou |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
瑪莉亞颱風(2018)快速增強及結構演變之數值模擬研究 The numerical simulation and study of rapid intensification (RI) and structure evolution of Typhoon Maria(2018) |
指導教授: |
簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching |
口試委員: | 王重傑 周昆炫 簡芳菁 |
口試日期: | 2022/01/26 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2022 |
畢業學年度: | 110 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 82 |
中文關鍵詞: | 快速增強 、數值模擬 、颱風 、暖心結構 、海溫敏感度 、海表通量 |
英文關鍵詞: | typhoon, rapid intensification, numerical simulation, warm core, sea surface temperature sensitivity, sea surface flux |
研究方法: | 實驗設計法 、 個案研究法 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202200303 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:147 下載:43 |
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瑪莉亞颱風(Maria)於 2018 年 7 月 3 日於關島東南方海面生成,從 5 日至 6 日,其強度迅速增強進入快速增強(Rapid Intensification; RI)過程,並於 RI 結束後不到 24 小時便進行了一次眼牆置換。本研究利用 WRF 模式搭配歐洲中期天氣預報中心 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast;ECMWF)之 ERA5 全球模式資料為初始場,同時利用颱風動力初始化方式,分析瑪莉亞颱風 RI 過程以及結構變化。
模擬結果顯示, RI 的發展主要受到內外兩對流區強度的影響。在 RI 開始前,內核區高層的對流活動,以及較低的環境垂直風切,使得潛熱能夠有效釋放,形成高層暖心結構,進而使颱風中心最低氣壓下降,高層暖心與中心最低氣壓之間的正回饋,有效提高颱風的強度,使颱風進入 RI階段。在 RI 後期,即便颱風對流強度沒有顯著的減弱,但是由於強對流活動主要集中在外圍,能量無法有效傳遞至內核區,導致內核區對流減弱,使得高層暖心結構無法維持,颱風強度停止增強。
為瞭解海表溫度以及海表通量傳輸對於 RI 的影響,本研究進行改變海溫以及改變海表通量計算方式之敏感度實驗。結果顯示,當海溫降低2°C 以上時,不會發展 RI 。當海溫降低1°C 時,依舊會發展 RI ,但是受限於海表熱通量不足及垂直結構傾斜等影響,高層暖心結構以及 RI 持續時間較短。當海溫增加1°C 時,颱風強度不論是在 RI 前、中、後都有更為顯著的增強,高層暖心結構更能夠維持,且垂直結構較不為傾斜。而改變海表通量計算方式,使得海表面阻力減小以及海表向上傳輸的熱通量增加,對於 RI 後期的增強更為顯著,且高層暖心結構更為明顯。
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