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研究生: 簡慈瑩
Chien, Tzu-Ying
論文名稱: 莫蘭蒂颱風(2016)之數值模擬與研究
The Numerical Simulation and Study of Typhoon Meranti (2016)
指導教授: 簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 148
中文關鍵詞: 颱風氣旋初始化雷達資料同化定量降水校驗
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DES.016.2018.B07
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:140下載:23
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  • 莫蘭蒂(Meranti)颱風於2016年9月13日至15日影響臺灣,雖並未登陸臺灣,但其行經巴士海峽期間,於臺灣東部迎風面與屏東地區降下豪雨,造成嚴重水災與山區道路損毀;且在進入臺灣海峽後,因受到東南方對流雲系影響,仍持續在台東地區造成豪雨。本研究應用Nguyen and Chen (2011) 颱風初始化方法,以WRF模式模擬莫蘭蒂颱風個案,探討東部迎風面的降水機制,並針對後期的台東豪雨事件進行討論。此外,為瞭解臺灣地形與雷伊颱風對莫蘭蒂颱風之影響,以及同化雷達資料可否對模擬之降雨有所改善,本研究也進行敏感度實驗和雷達資料同化實驗。
    模擬結果顯示,第一波降雨期間,環流與地形效應在對流發展與降水扮演重要角色;第二波降水期間,東部外海的氣流輻合與傳輸造成台東豪雨事件 。敏感度實驗結果顯示,臺灣地形高度會影響莫蘭蒂環流結構、路徑與迎風面的降水量;而地形阻擋效應、環流結構不對稱以及雷伊颱風皆是影響莫蘭蒂路徑的因素。雷達資料同化實驗使用3DVAR資料同化法,結果顯示同化雷達回波(包含徑向風與回波)或傳統資料因可修正颱風雨帶位置,使同化後0-12h的降雨預報獲得改善,因而對第一波降水有較佳的模擬。

    致謝 1 摘要 2 圖表目錄 5 第一章 前言 10 1.1 文獻回顧 10 1.2 研究動機 14 第二章 個案介紹與觀測資料分析 16 2.1 綜觀天氣圖 17 2.2 累積雨量 19 2.3 衛星雲圖 20 2.4 雷達回波 21 2.5 小結 22 第三章 資料來源與研究方法 24 3.1 資料來源 24 3.2 WRF模式簡介 25 3.3 氣旋移除方法(TC-bogus) 27 3.4 渦旋初始化(TC Initialization) 28 3.5 模式設定 28 3.6 實驗設計 29 第四章 莫蘭蒂颱風之模擬結果分析 31 4.1 模擬結果與觀測校驗 31 4.2 氣流分佈與水氣傳輸 37 4.3 氣流輻合與對流移動 39 4.4 地形效應 42 4.5 小結 43 第五章 雷達資料同化 45 5.1 路徑差異比較分析 45 5.2 環流雨帶與降水之差異分析 47 5.3 定量降水校驗 49 5.4 小結 52 第六章 敏感度實驗 54 6.1 雷伊颱風之影響 55 6.2 地形高度之影響 57 6.3 地形阻擋效應 62 6.4 駛流分析 64 6.5 小結 66 第七章 總結與未來展望 68 參考文獻 72 附表 76 附圖 78

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