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研究生: 李家輝
Lee, Jia-Huei
論文名稱: 鳳凰颱風(2008)之數值模擬與研究
The Numerical Simulation and Study of Typhoon Fungwong (2008)
指導教授: 簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 146
中文關鍵詞: 颱風系集預報投落送資料同化
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DES.005.2019.B07
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:119下載:17
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  • 本文使用EAKF(Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter)資料同化系統,針對鳳凰颱風(2008)進行數值模擬研究,透過投落送資料的同化進行分析,藉以了解同化投落送資料對模式後續的數值預報之影響。後續再利用EAKF系集預報的特性將系集成員分組,分別對臺灣降水與颱風路徑進行合成分析,藉由討論不同成員間的差異進一步了解鳳凰颱風在臺灣東北與西南部的降水成因。另外在研究中發現大多數系集成員之颱風路徑於登陸臺灣前有明顯南偏之情形,因此透過颱風路徑偏折角度的差異探討颱風路徑偏折之原因。
    模擬結果顯示,同化投落送資料雖然在颱風最低海平面氣壓以及最大風速上的改善程度並不顯著,但在颱風路徑、颱風環流雨帶之結構以及臺灣降水上有顯著的改善。透過降水合成分析可以發現西行颱風於登陸前以及出海後對於臺灣降水的成因有些不同,登陸前之颱風路徑與降水有較高相關性,出海後則為颱風移速以及有無引進西南氣流與降水有較高相關性。後續透過路徑誤差合成分析可以再次驗證降水與颱風路徑高相關性。最後在分析颱風登陸前之南偏現象時,發現是由颱風中層環流的不對稱產生向南之分量,使得颱風路徑產生偏折。

    致謝 i 摘要 ii 目錄 iii 圖表目錄 vi 第一章、前言 1 1.1 文獻回顧 1 1.2 研究動機 5 第二章、個案介紹與觀測資料分析 7 2.1 鳳凰颱風(Fungwong 2008)個案簡介 7 2.2 綜觀天氣圖 8 2.3 累積降水 10 2.4 衛星雲圖 11 2.5 雷達回波 13 2.6 小結 14 第三章、資料來源與研究方法 16 3.1 WRF模式簡介 16 3.2 EAKF 簡介 18 3.3 颱風初始化 20 3.4 資料來源 20 3.5 模式設定與實驗設計 20 第四章、投落送資料同化之影響 24 4.1 模擬結果比較 24 4.2 環流雨帶與降水差異分析 26 4.3 小結 31 第五章、降水分組之合成分析 33 5.1 系集成員分組 33 5.2 00-24 h合成平均分析 35 5.2.1 合成結果比較 35 5.2.2 水氣傳輸差異 38 5.2.3 地形之影響 40 5.3 24-48 h合成平均分析 49 5.3.1 合成結果比較 49 5.3.2 水氣傳輸差異 54 5.3.2 臺灣西南部大氣環境 57 5.4 小結 59 第六章、路徑誤差之合成分析 61 6.1 路徑誤差分組 61 6.2 颱風路徑南偏現象 66 6.3 小結 70 第七章、結論 71 7.1 總結 71 7.2 未來展望 74 參考文獻 75 附表 81 附圖 82

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