研究生: |
陳侃鴻 |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
氣候變遷對強烈颱風之影響 Impact of climate change on severe tropical cyclones |
指導教授: |
吳朝榮
Wu, Chau-Ron |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
海洋環境科技研究所 Graduate Institute of Marine Environmental Science and Technology |
論文出版年: | 2014 |
畢業學年度: | 102 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 46 |
中文關鍵詞: | 颱風 、年際變化 、趨勢變化 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:207 下載:30 |
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颱風不僅常常帶來嚴重的經濟損失,也危及民眾的生命安全,台灣位於颱風的好發區,颱風相關的研究十分重要,本研究以強烈颱風個數比例與影響颱風強度及個數的因素,在年際與趨勢變化兩方面進行討論。研究結果指出強烈颱風個數比例受到聖嬰的影響,使得颱風的生成位置在聖嬰年相對於正常年偏東,造成颱風在通過本研究區域的滯留時間增加,而850 hPa 風旋度場變化與強烈颱風個數比例有顯著的相關性,影響到颱風的動力,且850 hPa 風旋度場變化也反應出海表面壓力場的變化,進而影響到颱風軌跡,亦會造成颱風的滯留時間增加,使得颱風吸收到更多的颱風潛熱,故在聖嬰年,由於颱風生成位置偏東,且850 hPa 風旋度場變化值較大,故相較正常年與反聖嬰年容易形成強烈颱風。在趨勢方面,強烈颱風個數比例呈現逐年上升的趨勢,而滯留時間以及850hPa風旋度場變化皆逐漸不利於颱風發展,但颱風潛熱逐漸上升,所以在未來海洋可以提供颱風的能量也越多。而颱風個數逐年下降的趨勢,可能是與垂直風切與850 hPa 風旋度場變化有關。綜合來看,在風場的變化逐年不利於颱風發展的情況下,海洋所供給的颱風潛熱對颱風發展越來越重要。
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