研究生: |
李姿淋 Lee, Zih-Lin |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
獨特性風險對股票相對低估與高估之影響-不同程度投資人意見分歧之情境分析 The Influence of Idiosyncratic Risk on Relative Undervaluation and Overvaluation: A Scenario Analysis Across Different Levels of Investors' Opinion Divergence |
指導教授: |
蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuan 賴慧文 Lai, Whuei-Wen |
口試委員: |
蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuan 何耕宇 Ho, Keng-Yu 江彌修 Chiang,Mi-Hsiu |
口試日期: | 2024/06/18 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
管理研究所 Graduate Institute of Management |
論文出版年: | 2024 |
畢業學年度: | 112 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 48 |
中文關鍵詞: | 相對低估 、相對高估 、獨特性風險 、投資者意見分歧 、股票市場 、行為財務學 |
英文關鍵詞: | undervaluation, overvaluation, idiosyncratic risk, investors' opinion divergence, stock market, behavioral finance |
研究方法: | 次級資料分析 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202400698 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:123 下載:0 |
分享至: |
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本研究以2012 年 01 月至 2022 年 12 月台灣股票市場之上市公司為研究樣本,探討獨特性風險對股票相對低估與高估之影響,並且進一步探討將相對高投資者意見分歧納入考量後,如何影響獨特性風險對於股票相對低估與高估之關係。實證結果發現 (1) 獨特性風險越高會造成當期與預期股票被相對低估與高估的可能性增加以及 (2) 在相對高投資者意見分歧之情境下,會讓獨特性風險對股票當期被相對低估、當期被相對高估與預期被相對低估之正向影響力減弱。這樣的結果不但讓我們了解不同種類的風險,即獨特性風險對於股票相對低估與高估之間的關係,也奠定了投資者意見分歧為這段關係間的影響因素之一,並且協助了我們對於市場的理解以及有效的規避相對低估與高估带来的潛在風險。
This study examines listed companies in the Taiwan stock market from January 2012 to December 2022, exploring how idiosyncratic risk affects relative undervaluation and overvaluation of stocks. It also investigates how high investors' opinion divergence influences this relationship. Results show that higher idiosyncratic risk increases the likelihood of current and expected relative undervaluation and overvaluation of stocks. However, in situations of high investors' opinion divergence, the positive effect of idiosyncratic risk on current and expected relative undervaluation and current relative Oovervaluation weakens. These findings enhance our understanding of how different risk types, specifically idiosyncratic risk, relate to relative undervaluation and overvaluation of stocks. They also establish investors' opinion divergence as a key factor in this relationship. This improves our market understanding and helps in avoiding potential risks associated with relative undervaluation and overvaluation.
陳安琳 (2002), 台灣股票報酬之穩定因素-交叉確認、因素分析與模擬分析, 管理學報, 19 (3), 519-542, (TSSCI).
周賓凰、劉怡芬 Chou, Pin-Huang and Yi-Feng Liu (2000),「臺灣股市橫 斷面報酬解釋因子:特徵、單因子、或多因子?」“The Cross Section of Expected Returns in Taiwan: Characteristics, Single Factor, or Multi Factors?”,證券市場發展季刊 Review of Securities & Futures Markets,12:1,1-32。(in Chinese with English abstract)
黃瑞卿, 吳中書, 林金龍, & 蕭兆祥. (2012). 台灣企業財務危機因子的實證研究. 台灣金融財務季刊, 13(4), 55-77.
Aabo, T., Pantzalis, C., & Park, J. C. (2017). Idiosyncratic Volatility: An Indicator of Noise Trading? Journal of Banking & Finance, 75, 136-151.
Allayannis, G. and J.P. Weston, 2001. The Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives and Firm Market Value, Review of Financial Studies 14, 243-276.
Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1989). The Effects of Beta, Bid-Ask Spread, Residual Risk, and Size on Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 44(2), 479-486.
Au, A. S., Doukas, J. A., & Onayev, Z. (2009). Daily Short Interest, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Stock Rreturns. Journal of Financial Markets, 12(2), 290-316.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2007). All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors. Review of Financial Studies, 21(2), 785-818.
Bessembinder, H., Chan, K., & Seguin, P. J. (1996). Elsevier. Journal of Financial Economics, 40, 487-488.
Bikhchandani, S., Segal, U., & Sharma, S. (1992). Stochastic Dominance Under Bayesian Learning. Journal of Economic Theory, 56(2), 352-377.
Boehme, R. D., Danielsen, B. R., Kumar, P., & Sorescu, S. M. (2009). Idiosyncratic Risk and the Cross–Section of Stock Returns: Merton (1987) Meets Miller (1977). Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 438-468.
Borghesi, R. (2016). Liquidity, Overpricing, and the Tactics of Informed Traders. Journal of Economics and Finance, 41(4), 701-713.
Brennan, M. J., & Wang, A. W. (2010). The Mispricing Return Premium. The Review of Financial Studies, 23(9), 3437-3468.
Campbell, J. Y., Hilscher, J., & Szilagyi, J. (2008). In Search of Distress Risk. The Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2899-2939.
Cao, J., & Han, B. (2016). Idiosyncratic Risk, Costly Arbitrage, and the Cross–Section of Stock Returns. Journal of Banking & Finance, 73, 1-15.
Cao, Z., Chelikani, S., Kilic, O., & Wang, X. (2024). Implied Volatility Spread and Stock Mispricing. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 25(1), 79-91.
Chen, J., Tang, G., Yao, J., & Zhou, G. (2021). Investor Attention and Stock Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 57(2), 455-484.
Chen, L., Novy-Marx, R., & Zhang, L. (2011). An Alternative Three–Factor Model. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Chen, L., Qin, L., & Zhu, H. (2015). Opinion Divergence, Unexpected Trading Volume and Stock Returns: Evidence From China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 36, 119-127.
Collin-Dufresne, P., & Fos, V. (2016). Insider Trading, Stochastic Liquidity, and Equilibrium Prices. Econometrica, 84(4), 1441-1475.
Daniel, K., & Titman, S. (1997). Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 1-33.
Datar, V. T., Y. Naik, N., & Radcliffe, R. (1998). Liquidity and Stock Returns: An Alternative Test. Journal of Financial Markets, 1(2), 203-219.
De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & Waldmann, R. J. (1990). Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 703-738.
Diether, K. B., Malloy, C. J., & Scherbina, A. (2002). Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns. The journal of finance, 57(5), 2113-2141.
Dong, M., Hirshleifer, D., Richardson, S., & Teoh, S. H. (2006). Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market? The Journal of Finance, 61(2), 725-762.
Doukas, J. A., Kim, C. F., & Pantzalis, C. (2010). Arbitrage Risk and Stock Mispricing. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(4), 907-934.
Dow, J., & Gorton, G. (1994). Arbitrage Chains. The Journal of Finance, 49(3), 819-849.
Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2009). Disclosure Quality and the Mispricing of Accruals and Cash Flow. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 24(3), 357-384.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2017). International Tests of a Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model. Journal of financial Economics, 123(3), 441-463.
Gao, S., Brockman, P., Meng, Q., & Yan, X. (2020). Differences of Opinion, Institutional Bids, and IPO Underpricing. Journal of Corporate Finance, 60, 101540.
Garfinkel, J. A. (2009). Measuring Investors’ Opinion Divergence. Journal of Accounting Research, 47(5), 1317-1348.
Garfinkel, J. A., & Sokobin, J. (2006). Volume, Opinion Divergence, and Returns: A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift. Journal of Accounting Research, 44(1), 85-112.
Glosten, L. R., & Harris, L. E. (1988). Estimating the Components of the Bid/Ask Spread. Journal of Financial Economics, 21(1), 123-142.
Goetzmann, W. N., & Kumar, A. (2008). Equity Portfolio Diversification*. Review of Finance, 12(3), 433-463.
He, W. P., Lepone, A., & Leung, H. (2013). Information Asymmetry and the Cost of Equity Capital. International Review of Economics & Finance, 27, 611-620.
Hirshleifer, D., Kewei Hou, Teoh, S. H., & Yinglei Zhang. (2004). Do Investors Overvalue Firms With Bloated Balance Sheets? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 38, 297-331.
Ho, K. C., Lee, S. C., Huang, P. H., & Hsu, T. Y. (2016). Distress Risk and Leverage Puzzles: Evidence From Taiwan. Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets and Institutions, 6(2), 72-78.
Hu, Y., Zhao, T., & Zhang, L. (2020). Noise Trading, Institutional Trading, and Opinion Divergence: Evidence on Intraday Data in the Chinese Stock Market. International Review of Economics & Finance, 68, 74-89.
Hur, J., & Singh, V. (2021). The Role of Investor Attention in Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle and New Results. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 58(1), 409-434.
Jacobs, H., & Müller, S. (2020). Anomalies Across the Globe: Once Public, No Longer Existent? Journal of Financial Economics, 135(1), 213-230.
Jarrow, R. A., & O’Hara, M. (1989). Primes and Scores: An Essay on Market Imperfections. The Journal of Finance, 44(5), 1263-1287.
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Jiang, F., Jin, F., & Tang, G. (2020, January). Dissecting the Effectiveness of Firm Financial Strength in Predicting Chinese Stock Market. Finance Research Letters, 32, 101332.
Jiang, G., Lee, C. M., & Zhang, Y. (2005). Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns. Review of Accounting Studies, 10, 185-221.
Jones, C. M., & Lamont, O. A. (2002). Short-Sale Constraints and Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 66(2–3), 207-239.
Karpoff, J. M. (1987). The Relation Between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 22(1), 109-126.
Kelly, P. J. (2014). Information Efficiency and Firm-Specific Return Variation. Quarterly Journal of Finance, 04(04), 1450018.
Keloharju, M., Linnainmaa, J. T., & Nyberg, P. (2021). Are Return Seasonalities Due to Risk or Mispricing? Journal of Financial Economics, 139(1), 138-161.
Larcker, D. F., & Lys, T. (1987). An Empirical Analysis of the Incentives to Engage in Costly Information Acquisition. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(1), 111-126.
Lee, J. (2021). Information Asymmetry, Mispricing, and Security Issuance. The Journal of Finance, 76(6), 3401-3446.
Lenkey, S. L. (2017). Insider Trading and the Short-Swing Profit Rule. Journal of Economic Theory, 169, 517-545.
Lenkey, S. L. (2017). Insider Trading and the Short–Swing Profit Rule. Journal of Economic Theory, 169, 517-545.
Leung, W. S., Evans, K. P., & Mazouz, K. (2020). The R&D Anomaly: Risk or Mispricing? Journal of Banking & Finance, 115, 105815.
Levy, H. (1978). Equilibrium in an Imperfect Market: A Constraint on the Number of Securities in the Portfolio. The American Economic Review, 68(4), 643-658.
Li, X., Sullivan, R. N., & Garcia-Feijóo, L. (2016). The Low–Volatility Anomaly: Market Evidence on Systematic Risk vs. Mispricing. Financial Analysts Journal, 72(1), 36-47.
Lin, J. B., Pantzalis, C., & Park, J. C. (2010). Corporate Hedging Policy and Equity Mispricing. Financial Review, 45(3), 803-824.
Lin, J. B., Pantzalis, C., & Park, J. C. (2010). Corporate Hedging Policy and Equity Mispricing. Financial Review, 45(3), 803-824.
Liu, K., Cheng, Y., Yang, Z., Wang, H., Qin, Y., & Li, X. (2015). Orbital-Angular-Momentum-Based Electromagnetic Vortex Imaging. IEEE Antennas and Wireless Propagation Letters, 14, 711-714.
Loughran, T., & Ritter, J. R. (1995, March). The New Issues Puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 50(1), 23-51.
Lyandres, E., Sun, L., & Zhang, L. (2007, December 12). The New Issues Puzzle: Testing the Investment-Based Explanation. Review of Financial Studies, 21(6), 2825-2855.
Magiera, F. T. (1997). Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows about Future Earnings? CFA Digest, 27(1), 14-16.
Merton, R. C. (1987). A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information. The Journal of Finance, 42(3), 1869-1887.
Miller, E. M. (1977). Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion. The Journal of Finance, 32(4), 1151-1168.
Novy-Marx, R. (2013). The other side of value: The gross profitability premium. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(1), 1-28.
Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.
Pontiff, J. (1996). Costly Arbitrage: Evidence from Closed-End Funds. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(4), 1135-1151.
Pontiff, J. (2006). Costly Arbitrage and the Myth of Idiosyncratic Risk. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 42(1-2), 35-52.
Rhodes–Kropf, M., Robinson, D. T., & Viswanathan, S. (2005). Valuation Waves and Merger Activity: The Empirical Evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(3), 561-603.
Ritter, J. R. (1991, March). The Long–Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings. The Journal of Finance, 46(1), 3-27.
Roll, R. (1988). The international crash of October 1987. Financial analysts journal, 44(5), 19-35..
Sadka, R., & Scherbina, A. (2007). Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity. The Journal of Finance, 62(5), 2367-2403.
Sadka, R., & Scherbina, A. (2007). Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity*. The Journal of Finance, 62(5), 2367-403.
Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997). The Limits of Arbitrage. The Journal of Finance, 52(1), 35-55.
Stambaugh, R. F., & Yuan, Y. (2017). Mispricing Factors. The review of financial studies, 30(4), 1270-1315.
Stambaugh, R. F., Yu, J., & Yuan, Y. (2015). Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 70(5), 1903-1948.
Titman, S., Wei, K. C. J., & Xie, F. (2004). Capital Investments and Stock Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(4), 677-700.
Tuckman, B., & Vila, J. (1992). Arbitrage With Holding Costs: A Utility‐Based Approach. The Journal of Finance, 47(4), 1283-1302.
Wurgler, J., Zhuravskaya, E., 2002. Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks? Journal of Business 75, 583-607.
Xiong, X., Meng, Y., Joseph, N. L., & Shen, D. (2020). Stock mispricing, Hard-to-Value Stocks and the Influence of Internet Stock Message Boards. International Review of Financial Analysis, 72, 101576.
Yadav, P. K., & Pope, P. F. (1994). Stock Index Futures Mispricing: Profit Opportunities or Risk Premia? Journal of Banking & Finance, 18(5), 921-953.
Zeng, Y. (2016). Institutional Investors: Arbitrageurs or Rational Trend Chasers. International Review of Financial Analysis, 45, 240-262.
Zhang, L., Farooq, Q., Zhang, Y., Liu, X., & Hao, Y. (2020). Fair Value and Mispricing: How Domestic Earnings Transparency of Listed Firms Leads to Global Financial Stability. European J. of International Management, 14(1), 173-193.
Zhou, R. T., & Lai, R. N. (2009). Herding and Information Based Trading. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(3), 388-393.