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研究生: 林士然
LIN SHIH-JAN
論文名稱: 奈格颱風引起遠距降雨之個案研究
Case Studies of a Remote Rain Event Associated with Typhoon Nalgae
指導教授: 簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 147
中文關鍵詞: 颱風遠距降雨東北季風數值模擬
英文關鍵詞: Typhoon, Remote rain event, Northeasterly monsoon, Numerical simulation
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:196下載:31
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  • 秋颱奈格(Nalgae)於2011年10月1日至3日間影響臺灣,颱風中心距離臺灣甚遠,但臺灣東北部地區降下超大豪雨,排汛不及造成水災。本研究利用WRF模式模擬,藉以分析臺灣東北部劇烈降雨成因、測試颱風存在與否對環境氣流及水氣傳輸的影響,並改變臺灣地形高度進行敏感度實驗,此外,亦選取同年份相似路徑之納莎(Neseat)颱風做環境場之對照比較,討論環境場與臺灣地區降雨的關聯。
    模擬結果顯示,臺灣東半部發生強降水可分為兩個時期,第一為颱風環流與來自太平洋的東風輻合後形成對流,對流隨氣流方向進入臺灣陸地,在迎風面降下豪雨;第二為颱風東側的南風環流與東風氣流匯合後,兩者北偏與乾冷之東北季風輻合,發展出旺盛對流,加以宜蘭地區的地形效應,使該處出現劇烈降水。另外,若將颱風移除,臺灣南側暖溼氣流北送的情勢減弱,使累積雨量降低、降水區域改變。而將奈格颱風與納莎颱風的環境場相互對照後發現,東北季風對於東北部出現超大豪雨有重要貢獻。
    歸納上述結果,本個案造成臺灣出現遠距降水之原因有:(1)颱風環流將南邊的暖濕水氣北送。(2)南來的暖溼氣流與乾冷的東北季風交會提供對流發展之有利條件。(3)對流系統移入時,受到地形抬升而增強。(4)宜蘭地區之地形利於氣流匯集,輻合現象顯著。

    Typhoon Nalgae (2011) causes extremely torrential rain and flood to northeast of Taiwan, though the center of Nalgae is far away from Taiwan. We used WRF model to analyze the factor of torrential rain, tested whether the existence of typhoon affects synoptic-scale environment and moisture transmission, then did experimentation by changing the topography height; additionally, we also analyzed typhoon Neseat (2011), which has the similar track and intensity, and told what difference between synoptic-scale environment and the rainfall in Taiwan.
    The simulation result indicates that the torrential rain happened at east of Taiwan can be divided into two periods. One is the convection that formed by the convergence of typhoon circulation and east wind from the Pacific Ocean. Convections entered Taiwan by the direction of airstream, and caused torrential rain at windward side. The other formed by the above northward and converged with northeast monsoon, which is dry and cold, added the terrain effect of Yi-Lan, then torrential rain happened.
    On the other hand, when the typhoon removed, the northward conditions of warm moisture became weak. The rainfall became less and the precipitation area has been changed, either. After comparing typhoon Nalgae with Neseat, the northeast monsoon plays an important role of torrential rain to northeast of Taiwan.
    To conclude the results above, there are four reasons that cause remote rain event: 1.Typhoon circulation transport warm moisture northward. 2. The convergence of warm moisture (from south) with cold and dry northeast monsoon sustained deep convection. 3. Convection system reinforces because of topography raise. 4. The topography of Yi-Lan supports low-level airflow convergence.

    致謝 I 摘要 II 目錄 III 圖表目錄 VI 第一章、前言 1 1.1文獻回顧 1 1.2過去共伴颱風分類 6 a.第一類路徑 7 b.第二類路徑 7 c.第三類路徑 8 1.3研究動機 9 第二章、奈格颱風觀測資料分析 11 2.1綜觀天氣圖 12 2.2累積降雨 14 2.3衛星雲圖 16 2.4雷達回波 17 2.5小結 18 第三章、資料來源與研究方法 20 3.1 WRF模式簡介 20 3.2氣旋植入方法(TC-bogus) 22 3.3資料來源 23 3.4模式設定與實驗設計 23 第四章、奈格颱風之模擬結果分析 26 4.1模擬結果與觀測校驗 26 4.2水氣傳輸與氣流輻合 32 4.3環境熱力機制分析 34 4.4強降水物理機制診斷分析 38 4.5環境場結構分析 41 a.綜觀環境場雨中尺度環境場之耦合 41 b.臺灣東部海面對流形成機制之時序變化 42 c.小結 44 第五章、敏感度測試與環境因子分析 46 5.1台灣地形高度測試 46 a.累積降水差異分析 47 b.氣流場與對流移動差異分析 50 c.小結 51 5.2颱風移除測試 52 a.綜觀環境場差異分析 54 b.水氣傳輸與氣流輻合差異分析 56 c.環境熱力機制差異分析 57 d.降水物理機制差異分析 58 e.小結 59 5.3相似個案比較─納莎颱風 60 a.綜觀環境場分析 61 b.中尺度環境場與累績降雨分析 63 c.納莎颱風模擬結果與觀測校驗 64 d.對流降水物理機制差異分析 67 e.熱力機制差異分析 68 f.小結 70 第六章、結論與未來展望 72 參考文獻 77

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